2018美国机器智能国家战略白皮书.pdf-资料库

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M A R C H 2 0 1 8 A National Machine Intelligence Strategy for the United States AU T H O RS William A. Carter Emma Kinnucan Josh Elliot CO N T R I B U TO RS William Crumpler Kirsten Lloyd A R E P O RT O F T H E CS I S T E C H N O LO G Y P O L I CY P R O G R A M

M A R C H 2 0 1 8 A National Machine Intelligence Strategy for the United States AUTHORS William A. Carter Emma Kinnucan Josh Elliot CONTRIBUTORS William Crumpler Kirsten Lloyd A Report of the CSIS TECHNOLOGY POLICY PROGRAM

About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help de- cisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in Novem- ber 2015. Former U.S. deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre has served as the Center’s president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed here- in should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). Acknowledgments This report is coauthored and made possible by the generous support of Booz Al- len Hamilton Inc. Booz Allen is a global firm of 24,225 exceptional people driven to excel, do right, and realize positive change on behalf of their clients. For more than 100 years, Booz Allen has brought bold thinking to clients spanning defense to health and international development. The firm’s core capabilities are in consult- ing, analytics, digital solutions, engineering, and cyber. Booz Allen is also a leading developer and implementer of machine intelligence (MI) technologies. © 2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Center for Strategic & International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org II A National Machine Intelligence Strategy for the United States

Contents IV Executive Summary III VI SECTION I Introduction 4 SECTION II The State of Machine Intelligence 10 SECTION III Impact on the Economy, Society, and National Security 18 STRATEGIES Creating a National Machine Intelligence Strategy 20 A. INVEST IN THE CONTINUING RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OF MI TECHNOLOGY. 24 B. DEVELOP A WORKFORCE FOR THE MI AGE. 30 C. CREATE A FLEXIBLE AND OPEN DATA ECOSYSTEM IN WHICH MI CAN THRIVE. 34 D. CREATE THOUGHTFUL PUBLIC POLICY TO SPUR MI ADOPTION AND REDUCE BARRIERS. 38 E. DEVELOP PROACTIVE STRATEGIES TO MANAGE MI’S RISKS. 42 F. LEAD IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MI TECHNOLOGY AND MI GOVERNANCE AROUND THE WORLD THROUGH STRATEGIC MI PARTNERSHIPS. 46 Conclusion

Executive Summary The United States is at the precipice of a defining moment in history. Over the past five years, progress in machine intelligence (MI) has great- ly accelerated. From the defeat of Go champion Lee Sedol by Deep- Mind’s AlphaGo program to the first deployments of fully autonomous vehicles on public roads, recent events are challenging us to reevaluate what may soon be possible for computerized systems. MI systems have already begun to quietly pervade a growing share of businesses, gov- ernments, and individual lives around the world, and we are only just beginning to grasp the impacts that this technological revolution will have on our economy, our society, and our national security. The United States’ current economic and technical lead in MI uniquely positions us to ensure the technology’s impact will be broadly beneficial, for Americans and the world. Other countries have already established national strategies to capture the benefits of MI and catch up with the United States. Capturing this opportunity requires we invest in remain- ing at the leading edge of MI’s development, and plan for the broader changes it implies. A national strategy for MI will provide the United States a platform for creating the policies and investments that ensure MI’s progress is consistent with American goals, norms, and values. This strategy should have two overarching goals. The first is to promote the safe and responsible development of MI technology by funding long-term R&D where the private sector is not incentivized to invest, de- veloping a workforce for the MI age, creating dynamic commercial mar- kets for MI technologies to capture the innovation of the private sector, and proactively managing the risks and disruptions that MI will bring. The second goal is to maintain U.S. leadership in MI by reinforcing our innovation base and establishing strategic partnerships to leverage the comparative advantages of our allies and lead the development of glob- al MI governance. IV A National Machine Intelligence Strategy for the United States

A. INVEST IN THE CONTINUING RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OF MI TECHNOLOGY. Though the United States benefits from strong private- sector investment in MI R&D, companies alone cannot carry the burden of keeping the United States at the forefront of MI innovation. The government has a unique role to play in funding research into defense-specific innovations, sys- tems of MI ethics and control, and high-risk, high-reward long-term research with uncertain commercial returns. The federal government must not waver in its commitment to advancing these essential domains, and must ensure that our national security community is able to keep up in the development and deployment of MI-enabled systems. E. DEVELOP PROACTIVE STRATEGIES TO MANAGE MI’S RISKS. While the apocalyptic warnings voiced by some in the tech community are overblown, MI systems will raise new challenges in the areas of privacy, algorithmic bias, system safety and control. The U.S. government can help confront these risks by leading in the development of safety, ethics, and control standards for MI, and working with the private sector to develop methods of testing and certification for MI systems. In addition, policymakers must establish clear expectations for MI developers in the event of accidents in order to reduce regulatory uncer- tainty and manage public anxiety. V B. DEVELOP A WORKFORCE FOR THE MI AGE. We must adapt to shifting economic circumstances to prepare our workforce for the jobs of the future. This will require a renewed emphasis on computer science educa- tion and technical skills to build and maintain MI systems, as well as basic digital literacy and the liberal arts as the economy faces a growing demand for adaptable workers with soft skills capable of complementing the operations of MI systems. It will also be essential for policymakers to help workers displaced by automation to develop new skills by expanding retraining and continuing education initiatives and strengthening the social safety net. We must also en- sure that our country is able to attract and retain the best talent from around the world. C. CREATE A FLEXIBLE AND OPEN DATA ECOSYSTEM IN WHICH MI CAN THRIVE. An essential component for the development of MI systems is access to large amounts of high-quality training data. By expanding government open data initiatives, working with the private sector to support private-private sharing in ways that protect privacy, and supporting the development and deployment of new standards to improve data quality, the government can help MI developers access the data they need to create new and more powerful MI applications. D. CREATE THOUGHTFUL PUBLIC POLICY TO SPUR MI ADOPTION AND REDUCE BARRIERS. Many U.S. enterprises are held back from capturing the full benefits of MI due to uncertainty over legal and regulatory requirements and a lack of supporting IT infrastructure. To help grow the market for U.S. MI developers and improve productivity throughout the economy, policymakers should consult with industry partners to identify ways to remove legal and regulatory uncertainty, and devise ways of supporting IT modernization within the private sector. F. LEAD THE DEVELOPMENT OF MI TECHNOLOGY AND MI GOVERNANCE AROUND THE WORLD THROUGH STRATEGIC MI PARTNERSHIPS. By developing strategic MI partnerships, the United States can leverage the comparative advantages of our allies and help shape global technical and governance standards around the development and use of MI. A United States with a clear national strategy for MI should play a central role in the development of MI technology and MI policy around the world, and that will require strong partnerships with our allies. IT will take time to craft and implement all of the elements of a national MI policy, but we must act now to establish a cohesive national MI strategy. As a first step, the president should designate an MI lead at the White House to coordi- nate the development and implementation of a strategy and ensure that this is a priority across the federal government. This person should prior- itize reviewing and implementing the 2016 AI R&D Strategy recommended by the National Science and Technology Council. Federal agencies and regulators should also initiate consultations with the private sector and MI experts in academia to ensure that our approach is flexible enough to adapt over time and appropriate to the technolo- gy. These discussions will take time, but will help to guide the efforts of policymakers and ensure that MI governance develops in partnership with industry, not in opposition to it.

SECTION I Engingeer working on machine in factory. VI INTRODUCTION

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