美国陆军智库《2016-2045年新兴科技趋势》（英文原版）.pdf

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科技趋势

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APRIL 2016 Emerging Science and Technology Trends: 2016-2045 A Synthesis of Leading Forecasts Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research & Technology)

DISCLAIMER This report was prepared for the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research & Technology) by FutureScout, LLC, a strategy and analytics firm specializing in helping organizations understand emerging trends and how to prepare strategically to thrive in the face of an uncertain future. Questions regarding the preparation of this report may be directed to: Dr. Jason Augustyn President, FutureScout LLC (571) 730-0992 jason@futurescoutllc.com This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Army. Neither the United States Army nor any component thereof, nor any of its contractors or subcontractors makes any warranty for the accuracy, completeness, or any third party’s use of the information contained herein. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Army or any component thereof or its contractors or subcontractors. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect official views or policies of the United States Army.

TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .....................................................................1 BACKGROUND ..................................................................................2 EMERGING S&T TRENDS .................................................................3 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES...............................................................9 CONCLUSION ................................................................................... 12 APPENDIX A: BIBLIOGRAPHY ...................................................... 14 APPENDIX B: ANALYSIS METHODS ............................................. 16 TREND CARDS .................................................................................18 ODASA(R&T) | Emerging S&T Trends: 2016-2045

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This is the third annual report on emerging trends in science and technology (S&T) published by the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Research and Technology (DASA R&T). As in prior years, the report has two primary objectives. First, it is intended to inform leaders across the U.S. Army and stakeholders in the joint, interagency, and international community about S&T trends that are likely to influence the future operating environment and shape warfighting capabilities over the next 30 years. Second, it is intended to spark strategic dialogue around the kind of S&T investments the Army should make to ensure that our Soldiers maintain overmatch in future operations. This 2016 version of the S&T Strategic Trends report synthesizes 32 S&T forecasts that have been published over the past five years by government agencies in the U.S. and abroad, industry leaders, international institutions, and think tanks. The objective was to identify trends that are most likely to generate revolutionary or disruptive change of interest to the Army over the next 30 years. By consolidating multiple trend analyses into a single reference document, this report aims to provide a ready reference for Army leadership as it considers the important role S&T will play in shaping the future of our Army. Analysis of the source documents produced 690 individual trends related to science and technology, as well as trends related to broader contextual factors that will shape the evolution of S&T over the coming decades. From this data set, 24 emerging science and technology trends were identified: • Robotics and autonomous systems • Additive manufacturing • Analytics • Human augmentation • Mobile and cloud computing • Medical advances • Cyber • Energy • Smart cities • Internet of things • Food and water technology • Quantum computing • Social empowerment • Advanced digital • Blended reality • Technology for climate change • Advanced materials • Novel weaponry • Space • Synthetic biology • Changing nature of work • Privacy • Education • Transportation and logistics In addition to these emerging S&T trends, this report discusses six broad contextual forces that are likely to shape the evolution of science and technology over the next 30 years: urbanization, climate change, resource constraints, shifting demographics, the globalization of innovation, and the rise of a global middle class. As with previous editions of the S&T Strategic Trends report, a set of “trend cards” are included in this report. These cards provide additional detail on the S&T trends, including a synopsis of each trend, along with summaries of enabling S&T domains, recent developments that signal how each trend might evolve, and a high-level consideration of the impacts each trend might have on society, politics, economics, the environment, and defense. These trend cards provide a convenient reference for trends that have the most potential for influencing Army capabilities and the future operating environment. Science and technology are part of a system of driving forces that will change many aspects of the world over the next 30 years. While it is impossible to accurately predict the future in detail, the trends discussed in this report will influence the course of global change with ramifications for the U.S. Army. The intent behind the analysis presented here is to inform Army leadership about where the future might be headed, and by doing so, support strategic thinking about how best to prepare the force for the road ahead. Point of Contact Questions regarding this report should be directed to: Aaron Chan (Acting) Director, Technology Wargaming and Manufacturing Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research & Technology) ASA(ALT) SAAL-ZT 703-697-0427 aaron.m.chan2.civ@mail.mil 1 ODASA(R&T) | Emerging S&T Trends: 2016-2045

BACKGROUND This is the third annual report on emerging trends in science and technology (S&T) published by the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Research and Technology (DASA R&T). As in prior years, the report has two primary objectives. First, it is intended to inform leaders across the U.S. Army and stakeholders in the joint, interagency, and international community about S&T trends that are likely to influence the future operating environment and shape Army capabilities over the next 30 years. Second, it is intended to spark strategic dialogue around the kind of S&T investments the Army should make to ensure that our Soldiers maintain overmatch in future operations. This report is part of the DASA R&T’s broader Technology Wargaming program, which seeks to provide strategic foresight research and analysis in support of both S&T investment planning and Unified Quest, the Army’s annual future study program sponsored by the Chief of Staff and conducted by the Army Capabilities Integration Center (ARCIC). We stand on the cusp of technological revolutions on multiple fronts, in fields as diverse as robotics and synthetic biology. Technology has been central to the American way of war throughout the nation’s history,1 and it is safe to assume that scientific and technological advancements will remain an important foundation for U.S. Army capabilities over the next 30 years and beyond. At the same time, the global economic and political landscape is undergoing the most profound realignment since the fall of the Soviet Union. The United States military has long relied on an overwhelming advantage in research, development, and innovation that is unlikely to persist much longer. As China, Russia, and other nations modernize their militaries through investments in science and technology, it will become essential for the U.S. Army to make the most effective use of S&T investments to stay ahead of emerging threats. Effective investment strategies start with an understanding of emerging trends. Therefore, the aim of this edition of the S&T Strategic Trends report is to identify the major trends in science and technology that are likely to influence Army capabilities and the future operating environment over the next 30 years. The approach toward identifying these trends involved a comprehensive review and synthesis of open source forecasts published by government agencies in the U.S. and abroad, industry analysts, think tanks, and academic organizations. These institutions are also grappling with the influence of S&T on social, political, economic, environmental, and defense-related issues, and an analysis of the documents they produce reveals a number of common themes. Rather than duplicating the numerous S&T-related forecasts conducted by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, U.K. Ministry of Defense, the McKinsey Global Institute, and other major organizations, this report seeks to leverage their collective insights to identify trends that will impact the U.S. Army. 1. Mahnken, T.G. (2010). Technology and the American Way of War Since 1945. NY: Colum bia University Press. In that vein, a comprehensive literature search was conducted to identify trend forecasts published by foreign and domestic government agencies, industry analysts, academic organizations, and think tanks. A total of 32 reports were selected based on the following criteria: • All of the reports had to be the product of rigorous and well- documented research conducted by reputable organizations with a track record of producing high-quality trend analysis. • All of the reports had to have been published within the past 5 years. • All of the reports had to address science and technology trends that could influence Army operations and the future operating environment over the next 30 years. • All of the reports had to address a wide range of science and technology trends. Narrow forecasts related to highly specific industries or technology domains were not included in this analysis. Appendix A provides a complete bibliography of the sources that were used to conduct this synthesis of emerging science and technology trends. Overall, 9 sources were carried over from the 2015 Emerging Trends report, while 23 new sources were added. A content analysis of these documents (described in Appendix B) identified 690 specific trends related to science and technology as well as societal, economic, environmental, and political trends that are likely to shape the context in which scientific and technological developments will occur. Further analysis of the trend data revealed 24 common science and technology “mega-trends” that have the potential to shape future Army operations and the future operating environment. The analysis also identified six cross-cutting contextual trends that will influence how science and technology could evolve. Details on the analysis methodology are presented in Appendix B. The remainder of this report is divided into two primary sections. The first section reviews the science and technology trends that were identified through the synthesis of open source forecasts. As with the 2015 Trends report, a set of “trend cards” has been prepared that summarizes each of these trends. The cards, which are appended to the end of this report, provide a brief synopsis of each trend, review key scientific and technical enablers of the trend, highlight recent developments that signal how each trend might evolve over the coming decades, and review some of the impacts that each trend might have on society, politics, the economy, the environment, and national defense. The second section of the report reviews six contextual trends that appeared as common themes in many of the source documents. These trends speak to broader undercurrents that will shape the nexus among S&T, sociopolitical change, and national security through 2045. 2 ODASA(R&T) | Emerging S&T Trends: 2016-2045

However, while “Big Data” has become a buzzword, less than 10% of data generated each year ever gets analyzed. Over the next 30 years our ability to make better use of massive, dynamic data sets will improve. Automated bots will crawl unstructured data, identifying relationships that are visualized in immersive virtual datascapes. Analytics will spread beyond the enterprise, as people gain the ability to apply big data to their personal lives. Citizens will have the ability to use data to hold governments and other major institutions accountable, leading to tensions over data access. The rise of hyper-personalized marketing, government surveillance of citizens’ data trails, and high profile cases of data loss could fuel growing concerns over data ownership. Potential adversaries will use data that is stolen, purchased off dark networks, or accessed freely from open sources to compromise security and challenge U.S. defense capabilities. Human Augmentation Over the next 30 years, technology will allow us to transcend biological limits on human potential. Wearable devices connected through the Internet of Things will deliver context-sensitive information overlaid directly onto our senses. Exoskeletons and brain-interfaced prosthetics will make us stronger and restore mobility to the elderly and infirm. Sensors and computers embedded in contact lenses and permanent implants will let us hear whispers behind walls, give us natural night vision, and allow us to immerse ourselves in virtual and augmented realities. Nootropic drugs will expand our cognitive abilities and transform work and education. Of course, augmentation technology will come at a price, and those who cannot afford to upgrade their “human chassis” might find themselves unable to compete in the augmented economy. Networked augmentations will also be an appealing target for hackers looking to control over our very minds and bodies. While the U.S. Army will benefit from augmenting its Soldiers, the force will face adversaries who are similarly enhanced, and an augmentation arms race could evolve. EMERGING S&T TRENDS An analysis of the source reports identified 20 core S&T trends that will influence the world over the next 30 years: Robotics and Autonomous Systems By 2045, robots and autonomous systems are likely to be commonplace. Autonomous vehicles will make transportation safer and more efficient, while possibly fueling the rise of the sharing economy. Robots will care for the elderly, deliver groceries, harvest crops, maintain public infrastructure, and provide many other services that touch everyday life. Intelligent software agents, or “bots”, will extract insights from terabytes of data, automate business processes, and step into customer service, teaching, and other roles traditionally seen as “people-centric”. However, the rise of autonomous systems could displace hundreds of millions of labor and service workers, creating economic instability and the risk of social unrest. Networked autonomous systems will also become an attractive target for adversaries and a new priority for cyberdefense. The use of robots in military operations will expand as robotic systems gain mobility, dexterity, and intelligence, making robots effective partners on future battlefields. At the same time, adversaries will use robots and autonomous systems in ways that challenge us ethically and tactically. Additive Manufacturing Additive manufacturing (3D printing) has been used in industry for over 30 years, mostly as a tool for limited-run prototyping. However, there has been remarkable innovation in 3D printing technology over the past ten years. Prices for 3D printers are falling, and the availability of open source tools and 3D models from online marketplaces like Thingiverse has fostered the growth of a vibrant community of hobbyist “makers” who are pushing the boundaries of what this technology can do. By 2040, 3D printers will be able to print objects that incorporate multiple materials, electronics, batteries, and other components. People will be able to print tools, electronics, replacement parts, medical devices, and other products on demand, customized to their wants and needs. Military logistics will likely become streamlined, as equipment and supplies will be printed directly at their point of use. Objects will become information, and digital piracy will replace shoplifting. Terrorists and criminal organizations will print weapons, sensors, and other equipment using raw materials that will be almost impossible to track. Analytics In 2015, the world generated 4.4 zetabytes of data (4.4 trillion gigabytes), and this figure is expected to roughly double every two years. This flood of data holds deep insights into consumer behavior, public health, climate change, and a range of other economic, social, and political challenges. 3 ODASA(R&T) | Emerging S&T Trends: 2016-2045

EMERGING S&T TRENDS (CONT.) Mobile & Cloud Computing Cyber Mobile and cloud computing are transforming the way people interact with data. In the United States, an estimated 30 percent of Web browsing and 40 percent of social media use are currently done on mobile devices. By 2030, 75% of the world’s population will have mobile connectivity and 60% should have broadband access. Mobile devices are becoming more powerful and feature-rich, with a growing variety of embedded sensors that measure weather, location, ambient light and sound, and biometrics. Working in tandem with mobile data access, cloud computing provides access to almost unlimited computational power that scales seamlessly without requiring massive investments in IT infrastructure. Over the next 30 years, cloud-based mobile computing has the potential to transform everything from health care to education. Cell phones will monitor vital signs and communicate directly with diagnostic applications, people will use online educational portals from mobile devices to learn new skills, and apps will allow farmers in developing nations to connect to real-time weather data and tools for optimizing their harvests. At the same time, mobile and cloud computing will put significant pressure on network security, reliability, and bandwidth, and both consumers and enterprises will have to grow more comfortable with relinquishing their data to the cloud. Medical Advances Over the next 30 years, medicine will be transformed by multiple technological breakthroughs. Genomics will give rise to personalized medicine, with treatments for cancer, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer’s, and other diseases tailored to individual genetics. Artificial organs will be grown for transplantation from DNA samples, eliminating wait times for life-saving transplants and the risk of organ rejection. Prosthetics will be wired directly into the nervous system and will incorporate biologically based sensors that provide a near-normal sense of touch. Robotic first responders and tissue preservation techniques such as controlled hypothermia will revolutionize trauma care and greatly extend the “golden hour” for wounded Soldiers. As scientists unlock the keys to aging, people will live longer and stay healthy and active well into what today we consider “old age”. At the same time, the cost of advanced medical care will stress many national health care systems and trigger rising inequality in access to life-saving treatments. The coming medical revolution will also enable people to remain healthy and productive for decades longer, amplifying competition for jobs between older and younger workers and creating additional strain on social safety nets. Drug resistant bacteria will become an urgent problem in many parts of the world. Cyberdefense is hardly a new trend—warnings about a “cyber Pearl Harbor” were made as early as 1991. However, over the next 30 years the rise of the internet of things and growing interdependence among connected aspects of everyday life will bring cybersecurity to the forefront. While the number and scope of cyberattacks is increasing, most have been targeted against individual consumers or corporations and the damage from individual attacks, while extensive, has been easily contained. As cars, home appliances, power plants, streetlights, and millions of other objects become networked, the potential for a truly devastating cyberattack will grow. Nations, corporations, and individuals will be challenged to secure their data from ever more insidious attacks—many of which may go undetected for years. The worst-case scenario envisions a form of “cybergeddon”, in which the immense economic and social power of the Internet collapses under the weight of relentless cyberattacks. Energy Over the next 30 years the global demand for energy is projected to grow by 35%. The development of methods like fracking and directional drilling have opened vast new reserves of oil and natural gas. These technologies have up-ended global oil markets and turned the United States into one of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers. At the same time, renewable energy sources such as solar and wind are approaching cost-parity with fossil fuels. In the past two decades, the cost of power produced by solar cells has dropped from nearly $8 per watt of capacity to less than one-tenth of that amount. Nuclear, while still the subject of intense public debate, is continuing to grow, with new reactor designed promising greater safety and less radioactive waste. While adoption of cleaner energy sources would help combat global climate change, new frictions will emerge over access to rare materials used in batteries, solar cells, and other linchpins of the energy revolution. The fading of fossil fuels also carries significant risk of economic and social destabilization across the Middle East and North Africa, presenting new security challenges for the United States and its allies. 4 ODASA(R&T) | Emerging S&T Trends: 2016-2045

EMERGING S&T TRENDS (CONT.) Smart Cities By 2045, 65-70% of the world’s population—approximately 6.4 billion people—will live in cities. As urban populations swell, the number of megacities with 10 million inhabitants or more will grow, from 28 in 2016 to 41 by 2030. Mass migration to cities will put significant pressure on urban transportation systems, food and water supplies, power and energy infrastructure, sanitation, and public safety. Information and communications (ICT) technology will support the growth of “smart cities” that use data and automation to make urban centers more efficient and sustainable. Distributed sensor systems will monitor water and power usage and automatically balance distribution via smart grids. Networked traffic systems and autonomous transportation options will ease gridlock. New materials and design techniques will be used to build smart buildings that maximize the efficiency of heating, cooling, and lighting. Rooftop solar panels, micro-wind turbines, thermal power, and other renewable energy sources will provide clean, distributed power generation. At the same time, cities that cannot afford to invest in these technologies (or that lack the political will to do so) could turn into congested, dirty, and dangerous flashpoints for instability and conflict Internet of Things According to conservative estimates, there will be over 100 billion devices connected to the Internet by 2045. This will include mobile and wearable devices, appliances, medical devices, industrial sensors, security cameras, cars, clothing, and other technologies. All of these devices will produce and share vast amounts of information that will revolutionize how we work and live. People will use information generated through the Internet of Things (IoT) to make smarter decisions and gain deeper insight into their own lives and the world around them. At the same time, web-connected devices will also automate many monitoring, management, and repair tasks that currently require human labor. The intersection of the IoT, analytics, and artificial intelligence will create a global network of smart machines that conduct an enormous amount of critical business with no human intervention. While the IoT will improve many aspects of economic efficiency, public safety, and personal productivity it will also exacerbate concerns over cybersecurity and privacy. Criminal organizations, terrorists, and adversarial nation states will use the IoT as a new vector for attacking the United States and its allies. The immense amount of data generated through web-connected devices will also enable governments to conduct mass surveillance on populations, leading to ongoing tensions between digital freedom and security. Food and Water Technology Over the next 30 years, inadequate access to food and fresh water will become a crisis point in many parts of the world. Roughly 25% of current farmland is already degraded from overfarming, drought, and air/water pollution. Under optimistic forecasts, prices for staple grains could rise by 30% over the coming decades—increases of 100% are not out of the question if climate change, demand patterns, and failed resource management continue on current trajectories. By 2045, 3.9 billion people—over 40% of the world’s population—could face water stress. Technology offers many potential solutions to food and water crises. Desalination, micro-irrigation, water reclamation, rainwater harvesting, and other technologies could relieve pressure on fresh water supplies. Genetically modified crops and automation could improve crop yields and allow farmers to produce more nutrition from less land. Food and water, long taken for granted in the developed world, will become a major focus for innovation, and could become a major flashpoint for conflict. Quantum Computing Quantum computing uses properties of subatomic particles like superposition and entanglement to encode and manipulate data. While the technology has been discussed as a theoretical possibility for decades, recent research efforts across academia, industry, and government labs are beginning to demonstrate quantum systems that might have practical applications in the next 5-15 years. Quantum computing could be a linchpin technology that revolutionizes multiple other technical domains such as climate modeling, pharmaceutical research, and materials science. However, most of the interest in quantum computing is related to how it would transform cryptography. A quantum computer could crack all current encryption methods, and quantum cryptography could provide the first truly unbreakable encoding technology. Recent research has begun to overcome many of the technical problems that have limited the development of practical quantum computers. While real-world applications of quantum computing might not be seen until the mid-2040s, an influx of investment by governments and industry signals that quantum computing might be approaching a tipping point. 5 ODASA(R&T) | Emerging S&T Trends: 2016-2045

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