生态位模型原理及应用.ppt

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Spatial Modelling From Climate & Land Use Change to Biodiversity Conservation Loïc Pellissier (ETH, WSL) & Niklaus E. Zimmermann (WSL, ETH) Introductory course in Species Distribution Modelling using R @ PKU, Beijing, China Loïc Pellissier, Marc Grünig Philipp Brun & Niklaus E. Zimmermann | 6/13/2022 | 1

Part 1 Conceptual view on ecological variables Introductory course in Species Distribution Modelling using R @ PKU, Beijing, China Loïc Pellissier, Marc Grünig Philipp Brun & Niklaus E. Zimmermann | 6/13/2022 | 2

Quantifying niches: species distribution models Recap from last slides: Assumptions important for SDMs Spp= f(site) Target Unit Explanatory Unit response variable response variable dependent variable explanatory variable predictor variable independent variable biotic { biotic} abiotic, § The statistical (SDM) modelling will calibrate the distribution of species as a function of site factors. § We will do this in the R statistical environment Introductory course in Species Distribution Modelling using R @ PKU, Beijing, China Loïc Pellissier, Marc Grünig Philipp Brun & Niklaus E. Zimmermann | 6/13/2022 | 3

Conceptual considerations Model classification P) Precision: Degree of exactness in measurement or (model) prediction. G) Generality: Applicability of a concept/model to a range of instances [General rule/model w|out known cause-and-effect]. R) Reality: Collection of true causes and effects (in a model), which underlie superficial appearances. § Only two out of these three model characteristics can be maximized simultaneously. Consequently, the third attribute is sacrificed. This leads ultimately to three theoretical model categories: empirical (PR), mechanistic (RG), and analytical (GP). However, in practice there are rather gradients than sharp limits between these model categories Introductory course in Species Distribution Modelling using R @ PKU, Beijing, China Loïc Pellissier, Marc Grünig Philipp Brun & Niklaus E. Zimmermann | 6/13/2022 | 4

Conceptual considerations Model classification R P G After: Levins 1966, Sharpe 1990 § Only two out of these three model characteristics can be maximized simultaneously. Consequently, the third attribute is sacrificed. This leads ultimately to three theoretical model categories: empirical (PR), mechanistic (RG), and analytical (GP). However, in practice there are rather gradients than sharp limits between these model categories Introductory course in Species Distribution Modelling using R @ PKU, Beijing, China Loïc Pellissier, Marc Grünig Philipp Brun & Niklaus E. Zimmermann | 6/13/2022 | 5

Conceptual considerations Model classification Reality empirical phenomenological (ecological) statistical R mechanistic physiological (fundamental) process-based P Precision G Generality Introductory course in Species Distribution Modelling using R @ PKU, Beijing, China analytical mathematical theoretical From: Guisan & Zimmermann 2000 Loïc Pellissier, Marc Grünig Philipp Brun & Niklaus E. Zimmermann | 6/13/2022 | 6

Conceptual considerations Predictor classification 1 2 3 Resources: are used directly for physiological and metabolic processes: light, water, nutrients, etc. Direct: are directly impacting plants, but are not resources: temperature, humidity, pH, etc. Indirect: are not acting directly, but are often correlated with 1 and 2: elevation, slope, aspect, etc. After: Austin 1980, 1985; Austin et al. 1984; Austin & Smith 1989 Introductory course in Species Distribution Modelling using R @ PKU, Beijing, China Loïc Pellissier, Marc Grünig Philipp Brun & Niklaus E. Zimmermann | 6/13/2022 | 7

Conceptual considerations Predictor classification Geology Topography Mesoclimate Lat. / Lon. Soils ET Precip. Temperat. Wind Cloudiness Radiation Nutrients Soil & Air Water Heat Sum P. A. R. s e l b a i r a V t c e r i d n I 2 l e v e L 1 l e v e L s e l b a i r a V e c r u o s e R & t c e r i D Introductory course in Species Distribution Modelling using R @ PKU, Beijing, China Plant Growth, Development, & Potential Distribution From: Guisan & Zimmermann 2000 Loïc Pellissier, Marc Grünig Philipp Brun & Niklaus E. Zimmermann | 6/13/2022 | 8

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