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人工智能的军事应用 Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence.pdf
C O R P O R A T I O N
FORREST E. MORGAN, BENJAMIN BOUDREAUX, ANDREW J. LOHN, MARK ASHBY,
CHRISTIAN CURRIDEN, KELLY KLIMA, DEREK GROSSMAN
Military
Applications of
Artificial Intelligence
Ethical Concerns in an Uncertain World
For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR3139-1
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ISBN: 978-1-9774-0492-3
Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.
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Preface
The research in this report was conducted over the course of one year, from October 2017 to
September 2018. The completed report was originally delivered to the sponsor in October 2018.
It was approved for public distribution in March 2020. Since the research was completed and
delivered, new organizations have been created and important steps have been taken to address
many of the topics the report describes. As a result, this report does not capture the current state
of the topic at the time of publication. Although expert and public opinions may have shifted, we
believe the report documents a useful view of perspectives.
The field of artificial intelligence (AI) has advanced at an ever-increasing pace over the last
two decades. Systems incorporating intelligent technologies have touched many aspects of the
lives of citizens in the United States and other developed countries. It should be no wonder then
that AI also offers great promise for national defense. A growing number of robotic vehicles and
autonomous weapons can operate in areas too hazardous for human combatants. Intelligent
defensive systems are increasingly able to detect, analyze, and respond to attacks faster and more
effectively than human operators can. And big data analysis and decision support systems offer
the promise of digesting volumes of information that no group of human analysts, however
large, could consume and helping military decisionmakers choose better courses of action more
quickly.
But thoughtful people have expressed serious reservations about the legal and ethical
implications of using AI in war or even to enhance security in peacetime. Anxieties about the
prospects of “killer robots” run amok and facial recognition systems mistakenly labeling
innocent citizens as criminals or terrorists are but a few of the concerns that are fueling national
and international debate about these systems.
These issues raise serious questions about the ethical implications of military applications
of AI and the extent to which U.S. leaders should regulate their development or restrain their
employment. But equally serious questions revolve around whether potential adversaries would
be willing to impose comparable guidelines and restraints and, if not, whether the United States’
self-restraint might put it at a disadvantage in future conflicts.
With these concerns in mind, the Director of Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance
Resources, Headquarters, United States Air Force (USAF), commissioned a fiscal year 2017
Project AIR FORCE study to help the Air Force understand the ethical implications of military
applications of AI and how those capabilities might change the character of war. This report,
which is one of the products of that study, seeks to answer the following questions: (1) What
significant military applications of AI are currently available or expected to emerge in the next
10–15 years? (2) What legal, moral, or ethical issues would developing or employing such
systems raise? (3) What significant military applications of AI are China and Russia currently
iii
pursuing? (4) Does China, Russia, or the United States have exploitable vulnerabilities due to
ethical or cultural limits on the development or employment of military applications of AI?
(5) How can USAF maximize the benefits potentially available from military applications of
AI while mitigating the risks they entail?
The research described in this report was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine
Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is USAF’s federally
funded research and development (R&D) center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air
Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment,
combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is
conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force Modernization and Employment;
Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource Management. The research reported here was
prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000.
Additional information about PAF is available on our website:
www.rand.org/paf
This report documents work originally shared with USAF on September 27, 2018. The draft
report, issued on October 10, 2018, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and USAF subject
matter experts (SMEs).
iv
Table of Contents
Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii
Figures........................................................................................................................................... vii
Tables .............................................................................................................................................. x
Summary ........................................................................................................................................ xi
Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ xix
Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ xx
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1
Background ................................................................................................................................. 2
Purpose and Scope ...................................................................................................................... 5
Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 6
Organization ................................................................................................................................ 7
2. The Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence ................................................................... 8
What Is Artificial Intelligence? ................................................................................................... 8
Autonomy and Automation ........................................................................................................ 9
Approaches to Control and Oversight ...................................................................................... 11
Recent Progress in Artificial Intelligence That Is Driving Military Applications .................... 13
Benefits of Artificial Intelligence in Warfare ........................................................................... 15
Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Warfare ............................................................................... 21
The Need for a Closer Examination of the Risks of Military Artificial Intelligence ............... 22
3. Risks of Military Artificial Intelligence: Ethical, Operational, and Strategic .......................... 24
Stakeholder Concerns About Military Artificial Intelligence ................................................... 24
Taxonomy of Artificial Intelligence Risks ............................................................................... 29
Perspectives on Mitigating Risks of Military Artificial Intelligence ........................................ 40
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 48
4. Military Artificial Intelligence in the United States ................................................................. 49
Brief History of Military Artificial Intelligence Development in the United States ................ 49
Mistakes and Near Misses Lead to Caution .............................................................................. 52
Summary of Current Capabilities and Future Projections ........................................................ 53
U.S. Policies to Mitigate Risks ................................................................................................. 57
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 59
5. Military Artificial Intelligence in China ................................................................................... 60
Current Artificial Intelligence Systems and Plans for the Future ............................................. 60
Intelligence Development ................................................................................................... 70
Chinese Ethics and Artificial Intelligence ............................................................................... 72
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 81
The People’s Liberation Army’s Unique Advantages and Disadvantages in Artificial
v
6. Military Artificial Intelligence in Russia .................................................................................. 83
Current Capabilities and Future Projections ............................................................................. 83
Translating the Vision to Reality .............................................................................................. 90
Ethical Considerations .............................................................................................................. 94
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 98
7. Assessment of U.S. Public Attitudes Regarding Military Artificial Intelligence ................... 100
Importance of Public Perception ............................................................................................. 100
Prior Surveys ........................................................................................................................... 101
Results of the Survey of U.S. Public Attitudes ....................................................................... 102
Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 116
8. Findings and Recommendations ............................................................................................. 118
Findings .................................................................................................................................. 118
Recommendations ................................................................................................................... 125
Final Thoughts ........................................................................................................................ 127
Appendix A. Expert Interviews: Methods, Data, and Analysis .................................................. 129
Appendix B. Public Attitudes Survey: Methods, Data, and Analysis ........................................ 142
References ................................................................................................................................... 169
vi
Figure 2.3. Risks of Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence Identified in
Figure 3.2. United Kingdom Framework for Considering Human Control Throughout the
Figure 2.2. Potential Benefits of Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence Identified in
Figure S.1. Taxonomy of Artificial Intelligence Risk ................................................................. xiii
Figure 2.1. Taxonomy of Artificial Intelligence Technologies .................................................... 11
Structured Interviews ............................................................................................................ 16
Structured Interviews ............................................................................................................ 21
Figure 3.1. Taxonomy of Artificial Intelligence Risk ................................................................... 30
Life Cycle of a Weapon System ........................................................................................... 44
Figure 7.1. Public Concerns About the Lack of Accountability of Autonomous Weapons ....... 103
Figure 7.2. Public Sentiment Regarding Autonomous Weapons and Human Dignity ............... 104
Figure 7.3. Public Sentiment on Human Emotion and War ....................................................... 104
Figure 7.4. Public Opinions About Autonomous Weapons and the Likelihood of War ............ 105
Figure 7.5. Public Opinion on the Need for an International Ban on Autonomous Weapons .... 105
Figure 7.6. Public Belief That Autonomous Weapons Will Be More Precise Than Humans .... 106
Figure 7.7. Public Support for Continued U.S. Investment in Military Artificial Intelligence .... 107
Figure 7.8. Autonomous Missiles in Offensive Operations Without Human Authorization ...... 108
Figure 7.9. Autonomous Missiles in Offensive Operations With Human Authorization ........... 108
Figure 7.10. Defensive Use of Autonomous Drones Against Enemy Drones ............................ 109
Figure 7.11. Preemptive Use of Autonomous Drones Against Enemy Drones .......................... 109
Figure 7.12. Use of Autonomous Drones to Attack Enemy Combatants ................................... 110
Autonomous Weapons ........................................................................................................ 111
Autonomous Weapons ........................................................................................................ 112
Figure 7.15. Use of Military Artificial Intelligence to Identify Enemy Targets ......................... 113
Attack Enemy Targets ......................................................................................................... 113
Enemy Combatants ............................................................................................................. 114
Enemy Combatants ............................................................................................................. 115
Figure 7.19. Concerns About Exploiting Vulnerabilities in Commercial Software ................... 115
Leaders in Compromising Situations .................................................................................. 116
Figure 7.13. Use of Autonomous Weapons to Avoid Defeat When the Enemy Is Not Using
Figure 7.20. Use of Artificial Intelligence to Generate Fake Videos to Show Foreign
Figures
Figure 7.14. Use of Autonomous Weapons to Avoid Defeat When the Enemy Is Using
Figure 7.16. Use of Military Artificial Intelligence to Advise Commanders on How to
Figure 7.17. Use of Biometric Analysis at Military Checkpoints to Identify
Figure 7.18. Use of Biometric Analysis and Robotics to Identify and Subdue
vii
Figure B.7. The United States Should Work With Other Countries to Ban
Figure B.8. The Development of Autonomous Weapons Will Make the Occurrence of Wars
Figure B.4. Autonomous Weapons Are Ethically Prohibited Because They Violate the
Figure B.5. Autonomous Weapons Are Ethically Prohibited Because They Cannot Be Held
Figure B.6. The U.S. Military’s Testing Process Will Ensure That Autonomous Weapons Are
Figure A.1. Time Ranges Considered by Experts Interviewed .................................................. 137
Figure A.2. Number of Times a Benefit Is Mentioned (N = 24) ................................................ 138
Figure A.3. Number of Times a Risk Is Mentioned (N = 24) ..................................................... 140
Figure B.1. War Is Always Wrong ............................................................................................. 143
Figure B.2. Autonomous Weapons Are More Likely to Make Mistakes Than Humans ............ 143
Figure B.3. Removing Human Emotions From Decisions in War Is Beneficial ........................ 144
Dignity of Human Life ........................................................................................................ 144
Accountable or Punished for Wrongful Actions ................................................................. 145
Safe to Use .......................................................................................................................... 145
Autonomous Weapons ........................................................................................................ 146
More Likely ........................................................................................................................ 146
Figure B.9. Autonomous Weapons Will Be More Accurate and Precise Than Humans ........... 147
Artificial Intelligence Technology for Military Use ........................................................... 147
Missiles Have Human Authorization .................................................................................. 148
Human Authorization .......................................................................................................... 148
Without Human Authorization ........................................................................................... 149
Report Enemy Combatants ................................................................................................. 149
and Subdue Enemy Combatants ......................................................................................... 150
Swarm That Is Attacking .................................................................................................... 150
Autonomous Drones to Preemptively Destroy an Enemy Autonomous Drone Swarm ..... 151
Figure B.15. It Is Ethically Permissible for the U.S. Military to Use a Robot With Facial
Recognition or Other Biometric Analysis at a U.S. Military Checkpoint to Identify
Figure B.14. It Is Ethically Permissible for the U.S. Military to Use a Robot With Facial
Recognition or Other Biometric Analysis at a Military Checkpoint to Identify and
Figure B.16. It Is Ethically Permissible for the U.S. Military to Use a Swarm of Armed
Autonomous Drones to Protect U.S. Soldiers from an Enemy Autonomous Drone
Figure B.13. It Is Ethically Permissible for the U.S. Military to Use Missiles That
Autonomously Search for and Destroy Enemy Targets in Close Proximity to Civilians
Figure B.10. It Is Ethically Permissible for the U.S. Military to Continue to Invest in
Figure B.11. It Is Ethically Permissible for the U.S. Military to Use Missiles That
Autonomously Search for and Destroy Enemy Targets in War Zones Only If the
Figure B.12. It Is Ethically Permissible for the U.S. Military to Use Missiles That
Autonomously Search for and Destroy Enemy Targets in War Zones Without
Figure B.17. It Is Ethically Permissible for the U.S. Military to Use a Swarm of Armed
viii
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