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Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models
THE ECONOMETRIC AND TINBERGEN
INSTITUTES LECTURES
Herman K. van Dijk and Philip Hans Franses
Series Editors
The Econometric Institute,
Erasmus University Rotterdam
The Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lecture Series is
a joint project of Princeton University Press and the Econo-
metric and Tinbergen Institutes at Erasmus University Rot-
terdam.
This series collects the lectures of leading researchers which
they have given at the Econometric Institute for an audience
of academics and students. The lectures are at a high aca-
demic level and deal with topics that have important pol-
icy implications. The series covers a wide range of topics
in econometrics. It is not confined to any one area or sub-
discipline.
The Econometric Institute is the leading research center in
econometrics and management science in the Netherlands.
The Institute was founded in 1956 by Jan Tinbergen and
Henri Theil, with Theil being its first director. The Institute
has received worldwide recognition with an advanced training
program for various degrees in econometrics.
Other books in this series include
Anticipating Correlations: A New Paradigm for Risk Manage-
ment by Robert Engle
Complete and Incomplete Econometric Models
by John Geweke
Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response
by Charles F. Manski
Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting: The Dynamic Nelson-
Siegel Approach by Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rude-
busch
Bayesian Non- and Semi-parametric Methods and Applications
by Peter E. Rossi
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Bayesian Estimation
of DSGE Models
Edward P. Herbst and Frank Schorfheide
Princeton University Press
Princeton and Oxford
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Copyright © 2016 by Edward P. Herbst and Frank Schorf-
heide. Requests for permission to reproduce material from
this work should be sent to Permissions, Princeton Univer-
sity Press
Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street,
Princeton, New Jersey 08540
In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford
Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TW
press.princeton.edu
All Rights Reserved
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Herbst, Edward P., 1984-
Bayesian estimation of DSGE models /
Edward P. Herbst, Frank Schorfheide.
pages cm. – (The Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes
lectures) Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-691-16108-2 (hardcover : alk. paper)
1. Equilibrium (Economics)–Mathematical models. 2. Bayes-
ian statistical decision theory. 3. Stochastic analysis.
4. Econometrics.
I. Schorfheide, Frank. II. Title.
2015023799
HB145.H467 2015
339.501’519542–dc23
British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available
This book has been composed in LaTeX
The publisher would like to acknowledge the authors of this
volume for providing the camera-ready copy from which this
book was printed.
Printed on acid-free paper. ∞
Printed in the United States of America
1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2
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Hat der alte Hexenmeister
Sich doch einmal wegbegeben!
Und nun sollen seine Geister
Auch nach meinem Willen leben.
Seine Wort’ und Werke
Merkt’ ich und den Brauch,
Und mit Geistesst¨arke
Tu’ ich Wunder auch.
(. . . bad things happen in between,
but eventually the master returns. . . )
‘‘In die Ecke,
Besen! Besen!
Seid’s gewesen!
Denn als Geister
Ruft euch nur zu seinem Zwecke
Erst hervor der alte Meister.’’
JW von Goethe, Der Zauberlehrling
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Contents
Figures
Tables
Series Editors’ Introduction
Preface
xi
xiii
xv
xvii
Introduction to DSGE Modeling and Bayes-
I
ian Inference
1 DSGE Modeling
1.1 A Small-Scale New Keynesian DSGE Model
1.2 Other DSGE Models Considered in This Book
2 Turning a DSGE Model into a Bayesian Model
2.1 Solving a (Linearized) DSGE Model
2.2 The Likelihood Function
2.3 Priors
3 A Crash Course in Bayesian Inference
3.1 The Posterior of a Linear Gaussian Model
3.2 Bayesian Inference and Decision Making
3.3 A Non-Gaussian Posterior
3.4 Importance Sampling
3.5 Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms
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4
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