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Preface This book is intended to be used as a text for either undergraduate level (junior/senior) courses in probability or introductory graduate level courses in random processes that are commonly found in Electrical Engineering curricula. While the subject matter is primarily mathematical, it is presented for engineers. Mathematics is much like a well-crafted hammer. We can hang the tool on our wall and step back and admire the fine craftmanship used to construct the hammer, or we can pick it up and use it to pound a nail into the wall. Likewise, mathematics can be viewed as an art form or a tool. We can marvel at the elegance and rigor, or we can use it to solve problems. It is for this latter purpose that the mathematics is presented in this book. Instructors will note that there is no discussion of algebras, Borel fields, or measure theory in this text. It is our belief that the vast majority of engineering problems regarding probability and random processes do not require this level of rigor. Rather, we focus on providing the student with the tools and skills needed to solve problems. Throughout the text we have gone to great effort to strike a balance between readability and sophistication. While the book provides enough depth to equip students with the necessary tools to study modern commu- nication systems, control systems, signal processing techniques, and many other applications, concepts are explained in a clear and simple manner that makes the text accessible as well. It has been our experience that most engineering students need to see how the mathematics they are learning relates to engineering practice. Toward that end, we have included numerous engineering application sections throughout the text to help the instructor tie the probability theory to engineering practice. Many of these application sections focus on various aspects of telecommunications since this com- munity is one of the major users of probability theory, but there are applications to xi
xii Preface other fields as well. We feel that this aspect of the text can be very useful for accred- itation purposes for many institutions. The Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology (ABET) has stated that all electrical engineering programs should provide their graduates with a knowledge of probability and statistics including applications to electrical engineering. This text provides not only the probability theory, but also the applications to electrical engineering and a modest amount of statistics as applied to engineering. A key feature of this text, not found in most texts on probability and random processes, is an entire chapter devoted to simulation techniques. With the advent of powerful, low-cost, computational facilities, simulations have become an integral part of both academic and industrial research and development. Yet, many stu- dents have major misconceptions about how to run simulations. Armed with the material presented in our chapter on simulation, we believe students can perform simulations with confidence. It is assumed that the readers of this text have a background consistent with typical junior level electrical engineering curricula. In particular, the reader should have a knowledge of differential and integral calculus, differential equations, lin- ear algebra, complex variables, discrete math (set theory), linear time-invariant systems, and Fourier transform theory. In addition, there are a few sections in the text that require the reader to have a background in analytic function the- ory (e.g., parts of Section 4.10), but these sections can be skipped without loss of continuity. While some appendices have been provided with a review of some of these topics, these presentations are intended to provide a refresher for those who need to “brush up” and are not meant to be a substitute for a good course. For undergraduate courses in probability and random variables, we recommend instructors cover the following sections: Chapters 1–3: all sections, Chapter 4: sections 1–6, Chapter 5: sections 1–7 and 9, Chapter 6: sections 1–3, Chapter 7: sections 1–5. These sections, along with selected application sections, could easily be covered in a one semester course with a comfortable pace. For those using this text in grad- uate courses in random processes, we recommend that instructors briefly review Chapters 1–7 focussing on those concepts not typically taught in an undergraduate course (e.g., Sections 4.7–4.10, 5.8, 5.10, 6.4, and 7.6) and then cover selected topics of interest from Chapters 8–12.
Preface xiii We consider the contents of this text to be appropriate background material for such follow-on courses as Digital Communications, Information Theory, Cod- ing Theory, Image Processing, Speech Analysis, Synthesis and Recognition, and similar courses that are commonly found in many undergraduate and graduate programs in Electrical Engineering. Where possible, we have included engineering application examples from some of these topics.
Introduction 1 The study of probability, random variables, and random processes is fundamental to a wide range of disciplines. For example, many concepts of basic probability can be motivated through the study of games of chance. Indeed, the foundations of probability theory were originally built by a mathematical study of games of chance. Today, a huge gambling industry is built on a foundation of probability. Casinos have carefully designed games that allow players to win just enough to keep them hooked, while keeping the odds balanced slightly in favor of the “house.” By nature, the outcomes of these games are random, but the casino owners fully understand that as long as the players keep playing, the theory of probabil- ity guarantees—with very high probability—that the casino will always come out ahead. Likewise, those playing the games may be able to increase their chances of winning by understanding and using probability. In another application of probability theory, stock investors spend a great deal of time and effort trying to predict the random fluctuations in the market. Day traders try to take advantage of the random fluctuations that occur on a daily basis, whereas long-term investors try to benefit from the gradual trends that unfold over a much longer time period. These trends and fluctuations are random in nature and hence can be described only in a probabilistic fashion. Another business built on managing random occurrences is the insurance industry. Insurance premiums are calculated based on a careful study of the probabilities of various events happening. For example, the car insurance salesman has carefully evaluated the inherent risk of various classes of drivers and will adjust the premiums of each class according to the probabilities that those drivers will have an accident. In yet another application, a meteorologist tries to predict future weather events based on current and past meteorological conditions. Since these events are random, the weather forecast will often be presented in terms of probabilities (e.g., there is a 40 percent chance, or probability, of rain on Tuesday). 1
2 Chapter 1 Introduction Since the theory of probability and random processes finds such a wide range of applications, students require various levels of understanding depending on the particular field they are preparing to enter. For those who wish to improve their proficiency at card games, a firm understanding of discrete probability may be sufficient. Those going into operations management need to understand queueing theory and therefore Markov and related random processes. A telecommunications engineer needs to have a firm understanding of models of noise and the design of systems to minimize the effects of noise. This book is not intended to serve the needs of all disciplines, but rather is focused on preparing students entering the fields of electrical and computer engineering. One of the main goals of the text is to prepare the student to study random signals and systems. This material is fundamental to the study of digital signal processing (voice, image, video, etc.), communications sys- tems and networks, radar systems, power systems, and many other applications within the engineering community. With this readership in mind, a background consistent with most electrical and computer engineering curricula is assumed. That is, in addition to fundamental mathematics including calculus, differen- tial equations, linear algebra, and complex variables, the student is assumed to be familiar with the study of deterministic signals and systems. We understand that some readers may be very strong in these areas, while others may need to “brush up.” Accordingly, we have included a few appendices that may help those who need a refresher and also provide a quick reference for significant results. Throughout the text, the reader will find many examples and exercises that utilize MATLAB. MATLAB is a registered trademark of the MathWorks, Inc.; it is a technical software computing environment. Our purpose for introducing computer-based examples and problems is to expand our capabilities so that we may solve problems too tedious or complex to do via hand calculations. Furthermore, MATLAB has nice plotting capabilities that can greatly assist the visualization of data. MATLAB is used extensively in practice throughout the engineering community; therefore, we feel it is useful for engineering students to gain exposure to this important software package. Examples in the text that use MATLAB are clearly marked with a small computer logo. Before diving into the theory of discrete probability in the next chapter, we first provide a few illustrations of how the theory of probability and random processes is used in several engineering applications. At the end of each subsequent chapter, the reader will find engineering application sections that illustrate how the material presented in that chapter is used in the real world. These sections can be skipped without losing any continuity, but we recommend that the reader at least skim through the material.
1.1 A Speech Recognition System 3 1.1 A Speech Recognition System Many researchers are working on methods for computer recognition of speech. One application is to recognize commands spoken to a computer. Such systems are presently available from several vendors. A simple speech recognition sys- tem might use a procedure called template matching, which may be described as follows. We define a vocabulary, or a set of possible words for a computer- ized dictionary. This restricts the number of possible alternatives that must be recognized. Then a template for each word is obtained by digitizing the word as it is spoken. A simple dictionary of such templates is shown in Figure 1.1. The tem- plate may be the time waveform, the spectrum of the word, or a vector of selected features of the word. Common features might include the envelope of the time waveform, the energy, the number of zero crossings within a specified interval, and the like. Speech recognition is a complicated task. Factors that make this task so difficult include interference from the surroundings, variability in the amplitude and dura- tion of the spoken word, changes in other characteristics of the spoken word such as the speaker’s pitch, and the size of the dictionary to name a few. In Figure 1.2, we have illustrated some of the variability that may occur when various speakers say the same word. Here we see that the waveform templates may vary consider- ably from speaker to speaker. This variability may be described by the theory of probability and random processes, which in turn may be used to develop models for speech production and recognition. Such models may then be used to design systems for speech recognition. Vocabulary Template hello yes no bye Figure 1.1 A simple dictionary of speech templates for speech recognition.
4 Chapter 1 Introduction Templates Speaker 1 (male) Speaker 2 (male) Speaker 3 (female) Speaker 4 (child) Vocabulary hello yes no bye Figure 1.2 Variations in speech templates for different speakers. 1.2 A Radar System A classical problem drawing heavily on the theory of probability and random processes is that of signal detection and estimation. One example of such a problem is a simple radar system, such as might be used at an airport to track local air traffic. A known signal is converted to an electromagnetic wave and propagated via an antenna. This wave will reflect off an aircraft and return back to the antenna, where the signal is processed to gather information about the aircraft. In addition to being corrupted by a random noise and interference process, the returning signal itself may exhibit randomness. First, we must determine if there is a reflected signal present. Usually, we attempt to maximize the probability of correctly detecting an aircraft subject to a certain level of false alarms. Once we decide that the aircraft is there, we attempt to estimate various random parameters of the reflected signal to obtain information about the aircraft. From the time of arrival of the reflected signal, we can estimate the distance of the aircraft from the radar site. The fre- quency of the returned signal will indicate the speed of the aircraft. Since the desired signal is corrupted by noise and interference, we can never estimate these various parameters exactly. Given sufficiently accurate models for these random
1.3 A Communication Network 5 Figure 1.3 A radar system. disturbances, however, we can devise procedures for providing the most accurate estimates possible. We can also use the theory of probability and random processes to analyze the performance of our system. 1.3 A Communication Network Consider a node in a computer communication network, such as that depicted in Figure 1.4, that receives packets of information from various sources and must forward them along toward their ultimate destinations. Typically, the node has a Figure 1.4 Nodes and links in a communications network.
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