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Monetary Policy,Inflation and the business cycle（2015版）PDF.pdf

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    Title Page
    Copyright Page
    Dedication Page
    Contents
    Preface
    Chapter 1: Introduction
    Chapter 2: A Classical Monetary Model
    Chapter 3: The Basic New Keynesian Model
    kappa
    自然产出
    lambda
    稳定条件
    big theta
    参数取值
    货币增速规则
    Chapter 4: Monetary Policy Design in the Basic New Keynesian Model
    Chapter 5: Monetary Policy Tradeoffs: Discretion versus Commitment
    Chapter 6: A Model with Sticky Wages and Prices
    Chapter 7: Unemployment in the New Keynesian Model
    Chapter 8: Monetary Policy in the Open Economy
    Chapter 9: Lessons, Extensions, and New Directions
    Index
    Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle
    Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle AN INTRODUCTION TO THE NEW KEYNESIAN FRAMEWORK AND ITS APPLICATIONS SECOND EDITION Jordi Galí PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON AND OXFORD
    Copyright © 2015 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TW press.princeton.edu Society (ARS), New York All Rights Reserved Jacket image: Dollar Sign © 2015 The Andy Warhol Foundation for the Visual Arts, Inc. / Artists Rights Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Galí, Jordi, 1961– Monetary policy, inflation, and the business cycle : an introduction to the new Keynesian framework and its applications / Jordi Galí. – Second edition. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-691-16478-6 (hardback : alk. paper) 1. Monetary policy. 2. Inflation (Finance) 3. Business cycles. 4. Keynesian economics. I. Title. HG230.3.G35 2015 339.5′3-dc23 2014045946 British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available This book has been composed in LATEX in Sabon Printed on acid-free paper ∞ Typeset by S R Nova Pvt Ltd, Bangalore, India Printed in the United States of America 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2
    Als meus pares
    CONTENTS Preface CHAPTER 1 Introduction CHAPTER 2 A Classical Monetary Model CHAPTER 3 The Basic New Keynesian Model CHAPTER 4 Monetary Policy Design in the Basic New Keynesian Model CHAPTER 5 Monetary Policy Tradeoffs: Discretion versus Commitment CHAPTER 6 A Model with Sticky Wages and Prices CHAPTER 7 Unemployment in the New Keynesian Model CHAPTER 8 Monetary Policy in the Open Economy CHAPTER 9 Lessons, Extensions, and New Directions Index ix 1 17 52 98 126 163 199 223 261 271
    PREFACE THE PRESENT monograph draws together some of the lecture notes for graduate-level courses on monetary economics that I have taught over the past fifteen years at different institutions, including Universitat Pompeu Fabra, the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and the Swiss Beginner’s Doctoral Program at Gerzensee. The book’s main objective is to give the reader an introduction to the New Keynesian framework and some of its applications. That framework has emerged as the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. It constitutes the backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models used at the Federal Reserve Board, the European Central Bank (ECB), and many other central banks. It has also provided the theoretical underpinnings to the inflation stability-oriented strategies adopted by the majority of central banks in the industrialized world. A defining feature of the present book is the use of a single reference model throughout the chapters. That benchmark framework, which I refer to as the “basic New Keynesian model,” is developed in chapter 3. It features monopolistic competition and staggered price setting in goods markets, coexisting with perfectly competitive labor markets. The “classical model” introduced in chapter 2, characterized by perfect competition in goods markets and flexible prices, can be viewed as a limiting case of the benchmark model, when both the degree of price stickiness and firms’ market power vanish. The discussion of the empirical shortcomings of the classical monetary model provides the motivation for the development of the New Keynesian model, as discussed in the introductory chapter. The implications for monetary policy of the basic New Keynesian model, including the desirability of inflation targeting, are analyzed in chapter 4. Each of the subsequent chapters then builds on the basic model, and analyzes an extension of that model along some specific dimension. Once the reader has grasped the contents of chapters 1 to 4, each of the subsequent chapters can be read independently, and in any order. Thus, chapter 5 introduces a policy tradeoff in the form of an exogenous cost-push shock, which serves as the basis for a discussion of the differences between the optimal policy with
    and without commitment. Chapters 6 and 7 extend the assumption of nominal rigidities to the labor market and examine the policy implications of the coexistence of sticky wages and sticky prices. Chapter 8 develops a small open economy version of the basic New Keynesian model, introducing explicitly in the analysis a number of variables inherent to open economies, including trade flows, nominal and real exchange rates, and the terms of trade. In addition to some concluding comments, chapter 9 provides a brief description of several extensions of the basic model not covered in the present monograph, and a list of key references for each one. Chapters 2 through 8 contain a final section with a brief summary and discussion of the related literature, including references to some of the key papers. Thus, references in the main text are kept to a minimum. The reader will also find at the end of most chapters a list of exercises related to the material covered therein. The present second edition incorporates some new material to the contents of the book, in addition to providing an improved exposition of the old material and correcting some of the errors (none fatal, as far as I know) that passed it into the first edition and that have been uncovered by myself or others. The new material includes the analysis of the optimal policy under both discretion and commitment in the presence of a zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate, a constraint that was altogether ignored in the first edition, and whose relevance has come to the forefront of the policy debate (as well as the academic literature) in light of the economic and financial crisis of recent years and the associated responses of central banks. Moreover, a new chapter has been added (chapter 7), which introduces unemployment as an additional variable in the model, allowing for an analysis of its role in the design of monetary policy, following an approach that I originally proposed in my Zeuthen lectures. Throughout the book, consideration is made of exogenous shifts in the discount factor as a source of fluctuations, in addition to the technology and monetary policy shocks already allowed for in the first edition. Variations in the discount factor lead to changes in aggregate demand, without having any direct effect on labor supply and can thus be considered as a good stand-in for more general aggregate demand shocks. The level of the book should make it suitable for use as a reference in a graduate course on monetary theory, possibly supplemented with readings covering some of the recent extensions not treated here. Chapters 1 through 5 could also prove useful as the basis for the “monetary block” of a first-year
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