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    Cover
    Title Page
    Copyright Page
    About the Authors
    Contents
    Preface
    THE CORE
    Introduction
    Chapter 1 A Tour of the World
    1-1 The Crisis
    1-2 The United States
    1-3 The Euro Area
    1-4 China
    1-5 Looking Ahead
    Appendix: Where to Find the Numbers
    Chapter 2 A Tour of the Book
    2-1 Aggregate Output
    2-2 The Unemployment Rate
    2-3 The Inflation Rate
    2-4 Output, Unemployment, and the Inflation Rate: Okun’s Law and the Phillips Curve
    2-5 The Short Run, the Medium Run, the Long Run
    2-6 A Tour of the Book
    Appendix: The Construction of Real GDP, and Chain-Type Indexes
    The Short Run
    Chapter 3 The Goods Market
    3-1 The Composition of GDP
    3-2 The Demand for Goods
    3-3 The Determination of Equilibrium Output
    3-4 Investment Equals Saving: An Alternative Way of Thinking about Goods—Market Equilibrium
    3-5 Is the Government Omnipotent? A Warning
    Chapter 4 Financial Markets
    4-1 The Demand for Money
    4-2 Determining the Interest Rate: I
    4-3 Determining the Interest Rate: II
    4-4 Two Alternative ways of looking at the Equilibrium
    Chapter 5 Goods and Financial Markets: The IS-LM Model
    5-1 The Goods Market and the IS Relation
    5-2 Financial Markets and the LM Relation
    5-3 Putting the IS and the LM Relations Together
    5-4 Using a Policy Mix
    5-5 How Does the IS-LM Model Fit the Facts?
    Appendix: An Alternative Derivation of the LM Relation as an Interest Rate Rule
    The Medium Run
    Chapter 6 The Labor Market
    6-1 A Tour of the Labor Market
    6-2 Movements in Unemployment
    6-3 Wage Determination
    6-4 Price Determination
    6-5 The Natural Rate of Unemployment
    6-6 Where We Go from Here
    Appendix: Wage- and Price-Setting Relations versus Labor Supply and Labor Demand
    Chapter 7 Putting All Markets Together: The AS–AD Model
    7-1 Aggregate Supply
    7-2 Aggregate Demand
    7-3 Equilibrium in the Short Run and in the Medium Run
    7-4 The Effects of a Monetary Expansion
    7-5 A Decrease in the Budget Deficit
    7-6 An Increase in the Price of Oil
    7-7 Conclusions
    Chapter 8 The Phillips Curve, the Natural Rate of Unemployment, and Inflation
    8-1 Inflation, Expected Inflation, and Unemployment
    8-2 The Phillips Curve
    8-3 A Summary and Many Warnings
    Appendix: From the Aggregate Supply Relation to a Relation between Inflation, Expected Inflation, and Unemployment
    Chapter 9 The Crisis
    9-1 From a Housing Problem to a Financial Crisis
    9-2 The Use and Limits of Policy
    9-3 The Slow Recovery
    The Long Run
    Chapter 10 The Facts of Growth
    10-1 Measuring the Standard of Living
    10-2 Growth in Rich Countries since 1950
    10-3 A Broader Look across Time and Space
    10-4 Thinking About Growth: A Primer
    Chapter 11 Saving, Capital Accumulation, and Output
    11-1 Interactions between Output and Capital
    11-2 The Implications of Alternative Saving Rates
    11-3 Getting a Sense of Magnitudes
    11-4 Physical versus Human Capital
    Appendix: The Cobb-Douglas Production Function and the Steady State
    Chapter 12 Technological Progress and Growth
    12-1 Technological Progress and the Rate of Growth
    12-2 The Determinants of Technological Progress
    12-3 The Facts of Growth Revisited
    Appendix: Constructing a Measure of Technological Progress
    Chapter 13 Technological Progress: The Short, the Medium, and the Long Run
    13-1 Productivity, Output, and Unemployment in the Short Run
    13-2 Productivity and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
    13-3 Technological Progress, Churning, and Distribution Effects
    13-4 Institutions, Technological Progress, and Growth
    EXTENSIONS
    Expectations
    Chapter 14 Expectations: The Basic Tools
    14-1 Nominal versus Real Interest Rates
    14-2 Nominal and Real Interest Rates, and the IS–LM Model
    14-3 Money Growth, Inflation, Nominal and Real Interest Rates
    14-4 Expected Present Discounted Values
    Appendix: Deriving the Expected Present Discounted Value Using Real or Nominal Interest Rates
    Chapter 15 Financial Markets and Expectations
    15-1 Bond Prices and Bond Yields
    15-2 The Stock Market and Movements in Stock Prices
    15-3 Risk, Bubbles, Fads, and Asset Prices
    Chapter 16 Expectations, Consumption, and Investment
    16-1 Consumption
    16-2 Investment
    16-3 The Volatility of Consumption and Investment
    Appendix: Derivation of the Expected Present Value of Profits under Static Expectations
    Chapter 17 Expectations, Output, and Policy
    17-1 Expectations and Decisions: Taking Stock
    17-2 Monetary Policy, Expectations, and Output
    17-3 Deficit Reduction, Expectations, and Output
    The Open Economy
    Chapter 18 Openness in Goods and Financial Markets
    18-1 Openness in Goods Markets
    18-2 Openness in Financial Markets
    18-3 Conclusions and a Look Ahead
    Chapter 19 The Goods Market in an Open Economy
    19-1 The IS Relation in the Open Economy
    19-2 Equilibrium Output and the Trade Balance
    19-3 Increases in Demand, Domestic or Foreign
    19-4 Depreciation, the Trade Balance, and Output
    19-5 Looking at Dynamics: The J-Curve
    19-6 Saving, Investment, and the Current Account Balance
    Appendix: Derivation of the Marshall-Lerner Condition
    Chapter 20 Output, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate
    20-1 Equilibrium in the Goods Market
    20-2 Equilibrium in Financial Markets
    20-3 Putting Goods and Financial Markets Together
    20-4 The Effects of Policy in an Open Economy
    20-5 Fixed Exchange Rates
    Appendix: Fixed Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Capital Mobility
    Chapter 21 Exchange Rate Regimes
    21-1 The Medium Run
    21-2 Exchange Rate Crises under Fixed Exchange Rates
    21-3 Exchange Rate Movements under Flexible Exchange Rates
    21-4 Choosing between Exchange Rate Regimes
    Appendix 1: Deriving Aggregate Demand under Fixed Exchange Rates
    Appendix 2: The Real Exchange Rate and Domestic and Foreign Real Interest Rates
    Back to Policy
    Chapter 22 Should Policy Makers Be Restrained?
    22-1 Uncertainty and Policy
    22-2 Expectations and Policy
    22-3 Politics and Policy
    Chapter 23 Fiscal Policy: A Summing Up
    23-1 What We Have Learned
    23-2 The Government Budget Constraint: Deficits, Debt, Spending, and Taxes
    23-3 Ricardian Equivalence, Cyclical Adjusted Deficits, and War Finance
    23-4 The Dangers of High Debt
    Chapter 24 Monetary Policy: A Summing Up
    24-1 What We Have Learned
    24-2 The Optimal Inflation Rate
    24-3 The Design of Monetary Policy
    24-4 Challenges from the Crisis
    Chapter 25 Epilogue: The Story of Macroeconomics
    25-1 Keynes and the Great Depression
    25-2 The Neoclassical Synthesis
    25-3 The Rational Expectations Critique
    25-4 Developments in Macroeconomics to the 2009 Crisis
    25-5 First Lessons for Macro-economics after the Crisis
    Appendix 1 An Introduction to National Income and Product Accounts
    Appendix 2 A Math Refresher
    Appendix 3 An Introduction to Econometrics
    Glossary
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    Index
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    Credits
    Flexible Organization Macroeconomics, sixth edition is organized around two central parts: A core and a set of two major extensions. The text’s flexible organization emphasizes an integrated view of macroeconomics, while enabling professors to focus on the theories, models, and applications that they deem central to their particular course. The flowchart below quickly illustrates how the chapters are organized and fit within the book’s overall structure. For a more detailed explanation of the Organization, and for an extensive list of Alternative Course Outlines, see pages xiii–xv in the preface. INTRODUCTION A Tour of the World Chapter 1 A Tour of the Book Chapter 2 THE CORE The Short Run The Goods Market Chapter 3 Financial Markets Chapter 4 The Medium Run The Labor Market Chapter 6 Goods and Financial Markets: The IS-LM Model Chapter 5 Putting All Markets Together: The AS-AD Model Chapter 7 The Natural Rate of Unemployment and The Phillips Curve Chapter 8 The Crisis Chapter 9 The Long Run The Facts of Growth Chapter 10 Saving, Capital Accumulation, and Output Chapter 11 Technological Progress and Growth Chapter 12 Technological Progress: The Short, the Medium, and the Long Run Chapter 13 EXPECTATIONS THE OPEN ECONOMY Expectations: The Basic Tools Chapter 14 Financial Markets and Expectations Chapter 15 Expectations, Consumption, and Investment Chapter 16 Expectations, Output, and Policy Chapter 17 EXTENSIONS BACK TO POLICY Openness in Goods and Financial Markets Chapter 18 The Goods Market in an Open Economy Chapter 19 Output, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate Chapter 20 Exchange Rate Regimes Chapter 21 Should Policy Makers Be Restrained? Chapter 22 Fiscal Policy: A Summing Up Chapter 23 Monetary Policy: A Summing Up Chapter 24 EPILOGUE The Story of Macroeconomics Chapter 25
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    Sixth Edition MACROECONOMICS Olivier Blanchard International Monetary Fund Massachusetts Institute of Technology David R. Johnson Wilfrid Laurier University Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montréal Toronto Delhi Mexico City São Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei Tokyo
    Editor in Chief: Donna Battista AVP/Executive Editor: David Alexander Senior Editorial Project Manager: Lindsey Sloan Executive Marketing Manager: Lori DeShazo Senior Managing Editor: Nancy Fenton Senior Production Project Manager: Nancy Freihofer Senior Manufacturing Buyer: Carol Melville Cover Designer: Jonathan Boylan Cover Photo: © Alan Z. Uster/Fotolia Permissions Specialist: Jill Dougan Image Manager: Rachel Youdelman Executive Media Producer: Melissa Honig MyEconLab Content Lead: Noel Lotz Project Management, Page Makeup, and Design: PreMediaGlobal Printer/Binder: R.R. Donnelley / Willard Cover Printer: Lehigh Phoenix Text Font: Utopia 10/12 Credits and acknowledgments borrowed from other sources and reproduced, with permission, in this text- book appear on the appropriate page within text and on pages C-1–C-3. Copyright © 2013, 2011, 2009 by Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. Manufactured in the United States of America. This publication is protected by Copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise. To obtain permission(s) to use material from this work, please submit a written request to Pearson Education, Inc., Permissions Department, One Lake Street, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458, or you may fax your request to 201-236-3290. Many of the designations by manufacturers and sellers to distinguish their products are claimed as trademarks. Where those designations appear in this book, and the publisher was aware of a trademark claim, the designations have been printed in initial caps or all caps. Cataloging-in-Publication Data is on file at the Library of Congress 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 ISBN-13: 978-0-13-306163-5 ISBN-10: 0-13-306163-9
    To Noelle and Susan
    About the Authors Olivier Blanchard is the Robert M. Solow Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He did his undergraduate work in France and received a Ph.D. in economics from MIT in 1977. He taught at Harvard from 1977 to 1982 and has taught at MIT since 1983. He has frequently received the award for best teacher in the department of economics. He is cur- rently on leave from MIT and serves as the Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. He has done research on many macroeconomic issues, including the effects of fiscal policy, the role of expectations, price rigidities, speculative bubbles, unemployment in Western Europe, transition in Eastern Europe, the role of labor market institutions, and the various aspects of the current crisis. He has done work for many governments and many international organizations, including the World Bank, the IMF, the OECD, the EU Commission, and the EBRD. He has published over 150 articles and edited or written over 20 books, including Lectures on Macroeconomics with Stanley Fischer. He is a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a fellow of the Econometric Society, a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a past Vice President of the American Economic Association. He currently lives in Washington, D.C. with his wife, Noelle. He has three daughters: Marie, Serena, and Giulia. David Johnson is Professor of Economics at Wilfrid Laurier University and Education Policy Scholar at the C. D. Howe Institute. Professor Johnson’s areas of specialty are macroeconomics, international finance, and, more recently, the economics of education. His published work in macroeconomics includes studies of Canada’s international debt, the influence of American interest rates on Canadian interest rates, and the determination of the exchange rate between Canada and the United States. His 2005 book Signposts of Success, a comprehensive analysis of elemen- tary school test scores in Ontario, was selected as a finalist in 2006 for both the Donner Prize and the Purvis Prize. He has also written extensively on inflation targets as part of monetary policy in Canada and around the world. His primary teaching area is macroeconomics. He is coauthor with Olivier Blanchard of Macroeconomics (fourth Canadian edition). Professor Johnson received his undergraduate degree from the University of Toronto, his Master’s degree from the University of Western Ontario, and his Ph.D. in 1983 from Harvard University, where Olivier Blanchard served as one of his supervisors. He has worked at the Bank of Canada and visited at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge University, and most recently at the University of California, Santa Barbara as Canada-U.S. Fulbright Scholar and Visiting Chair. Professor Johnson lives in Waterloo, Ontario, with his wife Susan, who is also an eco- nomics professor. They have shared the raising of two children, Sarah and Daniel. When not studying or teaching economics, David plays Oldtimers’ Hockey and enjoys cross-country skiing in the winter and sculling in the summer. For a complete change of pace, Professor Johnson has been heavily involved in the Logos program, an after-school program for chil- dren and youth at First Mennonite Church in Kitchener, Ontario. iv
    Brief Contents THE CORE EXTENSIONS Introduction  1 Chapter 1 Chapter 2 A Tour of the World  3 A Tour of the Book  19 The Short Run  41 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 The Goods Market  43 Financial Markets  63 Goods and Financial Markets: The IS–LM Model  85 The Medium Run  109 Chapter 6 Chapter 7 The Labor Market  111 Putting All Markets Together: The AS–AD Model  133 The Phillips Curve, the Natural Rate of Unemployment, and Inflation  161 The Crisis  183 Chapter 8 Chapter 9 The Long Run  205 Chapter 10 Chapter 11 Chapter 12 Chapter 13 The Facts of Growth  207 Saving, Capital Accumulation, and Output  225 Technological Progress and Growth  249 Technological Progress: The Short, the Medium, and the Long Run  267 Expectations  289 Chapter 14 Chapter 15 Chapter 16 Chapter 17 Expectations: The Basic Tools  291 Financial Markets and Expectations  313 Expectations, Consumption, and Investment  337 Expectations, Output, and Policy  357 The Open Economy  377 Chapter 18 Openness in Goods and Financial Chapter 19 Markets  379 The Goods Market in an Open Economy  399 Chapter 20 Output, the Interest Rate, and Chapter 21 the Exchange Rate  423 Exchange Rate Regimes  445 Back to Policy  471 Chapter 22 Should Policymakers Be Restrained?  473 Fiscal Policy: A Summing Up  493 Chapter 23 Chapter 24 Monetary Policy: A Summing Up  517 Chapter 25 Epilogue: The Story of Macroeconomics  539 v
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