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Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing
Contents
Preface
Symbols and abbreviations
1 What are Bayesian filtering and smoothing?
1.1 Applications of Bayesian filtering and smoothing
1.2 Origins of Bayesian filtering and smoothing
1.3 Optimal filtering and smoothing as Bayesian inference
1.4 Algorithms for Bayesian filtering and smoothing
1.5 Parameter estimation
1.6 Exercises
2 Bayesian inference
2.1 Philosophy of Bayesian inference
2.2 Connection to maximum likelihood estimation
2.3 The building blocks of Bayesian models
2.4 Bayesian point estimates
2.5 Numerical methods
2.6 Exercises
3 Batch and recursive Bayesian estimation
3.1 Batch linear regression
3.2 Recursive linear regression
3.3 Batch versus recursive estimation
3.4 Drift model for linear regression
3.5 State space model for linear regression with drift
3.6 Examples of state space models
3.7 Exercises
4 Bayesian filtering equations and exact solutions
4.1 Probabilistic state space models
4.2 Bayesian filtering equations
4.3 Kalman filter
4.4 Exercises
5 Extended and unscented Kalman filtering
5.1 Taylor series expansions
5.2 Extended Kalman filter
5.3 Statistical linearization
5.4 Statistically linearized filter
5.5 Unscented transform
5.6 Unscented Kalman filter
5.7 Exercises
6 General Gaussian filtering
6.1 Gaussian moment matching
6.2 Gaussian filter
6.3 Gauss–Hermite integration
6.4 Gauss–Hermite Kalman filter
6.5 Spherical cubature integration
6.6 Cubature Kalman filter
6.7 Exercises
7 Particle filtering
7.1 Monte Carlo approximations in Bayesian inference
7.2 Importance sampling
7.3 Sequential importance sampling
7.4 Sequential importance resampling
7.5 Rao–Blackwellized particle filter
7.6 Exercises
8 Bayesian smoothing equations and exact solutions
8.1 Bayesian smoothing equations
8.2 Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother
8.3 Two-filter smoothing
8.4 Exercises
9 Extended and unscented smoothing
9.1 Extended Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother
9.2 Statistically linearized Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother
9.3 Unscented Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother
9.4 Exercises
10 General Gaussian smoothing
10.1 General Gaussian Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother
10.2 Gauss–Hermite Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother
10.3 Cubature Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother
10.4 General fixed-point smoother equations
10.5 General fixed-lag smoother equations
10.6 Exercises
11 Particle smoothing
11.1 SIR particle smoother
11.2 Backward-simulation particle smoother
11.3 Reweighting particle smoother
11.4 Rao–Blackwellized particle smoothers
11.5 Exercises
12 Parameter estimation
12.1 Bayesian estimation of parameters in state space models
12.2 Computational methods for parameter estimation
12.3 Practical parameter estimation in state space models
12.4 Exercises
13 Epilogue
13.1 Which method should I choose?
13.2 Further topics
Appendix Additional material
A.1 Properties of Gaussian distribution
A.2 Cholesky factorization and its derivative
A.3 Parameter derivatives for the Kalman filter
A.4 Parameter derivatives for the Gaussian filter
References
Index
more information - www.cambridge.org/9781107030657
Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing Filtering and smoothing methods are used to produce an accurate estimate of the state of a time-varying system based on multiple observational inputs (data). Interest in these methods has exploded in recent years, with numerous applications emerging in fields such as navigation, aerospace engineering, telecommunications, and medicine. This compact, informal introduction for graduate students and advanced undergraduates presents the current state-of-the-art filtering and smoothing methods in a unified Bayesian framework. Readers learn what non-linear Kalman filters and particle filters are, how they are related, and their relative advantages and disadvantages. They also discover how state-of-the-art Bayesian parameter estimation methods can be combined with state-of-the-art filtering and smoothing algorithms. The book’s practical and algorithmic approach assumes only modest mathematical prerequisites. Examples include MATLAB computations, and the numerous end-of-chapter exercises include computational assignments. MATLAB/GNU Octave source code is available for download at www.cambridge.org/sarkka, promoting hands-on work with the methods. s i m o s ¨arkk¨a worked, from 2000 to 2010, with Nokia Ltd., Indagon Ltd., and the Nalco Company in various industrial research projects related to telecommunications, positioning systems, and industrial process control. Currently, he is a Senior Researcher with the Department of Biomedical Engineering and Computational Science at Aalto University, Finland, and Adjunct Professor with Tampere University of Technology and Lappeenranta University of Technology. In 2011 he was a visiting scholar with the Signal Processing and Communications Laboratory of the Department of Engineering at the University of Cambridge. His research interests are in state and parameter estimation in stochastic dynamic systems and, in particular, Bayesian methods in signal processing, machine learning, and inverse problems with applications to brain imaging, positioning systems, computer vision, and audio signal processing. He is a Senior Member of the IEEE.
INSTITUTE OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS TEXTBOOKS Editorial Board D. R. Cox (University of Oxford) A. Agresti (University of Florida) B. Hambly (University of Oxford) S. Holmes (Stanford University) X.-L. Meng (Harvard University) IMS Textbooks give introductory accounts of topics of current concern suitable for advanced courses at master’s level, for doctoral students and for individual study. They are typically shorter than a fully developed textbook, often arising from material created for a topical course. Lengths of 100–290 pages are envisaged. The books typically contain exercises.
Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing SIMO S ¨ARKK ¨A Aalto University, Finland
cambridge university press Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, S˜ao Paulo, Delhi, Mexico City Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107030657 www.cambridge.org C Simo S¨arkk¨a 2013 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2013 Printed and bound in the United Kingdom by the MPG Books Group A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data ISBN 978-1-107-03065-7 Hardback ISBN 978-1-107-61928-9 Paperback Additional resources for this publication at www.cambridge.org/sarkka Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
Contents 1 2 3 4 Preface Symbols and abbreviations What are Bayesian filtering and smoothing? 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Applications of Bayesian filtering and smoothing Origins of Bayesian filtering and smoothing Optimal filtering and smoothing as Bayesian inference Algorithms for Bayesian filtering and smoothing Parameter estimation Exercises Bayesian inference 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Philosophy of Bayesian inference Connection to maximum likelihood estimation The building blocks of Bayesian models Bayesian point estimates Numerical methods Exercises Batch and recursive Bayesian estimation 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 Batch linear regression Recursive linear regression Batch versus recursive estimation Drift model for linear regression State space model for linear regression with drift Examples of state space models Exercises Bayesian filtering equations and exact solutions 4.1 4.2 4.3 Probabilistic state space models Bayesian filtering equations Kalman filter v ix xiii 1 1 7 8 12 14 15 17 17 17 19 20 22 24 27 27 29 31 33 36 39 46 51 51 54 56
vi 5 6 7 8 9 Contents 4.4 Exercises Extended and unscented Kalman filtering 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 Taylor series expansions Extended Kalman filter Statistical linearization Statistically linearized filter Unscented transform Unscented Kalman filter Exercises General Gaussian filtering 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 Gaussian moment matching Gaussian filter Gauss–Hermite integration Gauss–Hermite Kalman filter Spherical cubature integration Cubature Kalman filter Exercises Particle filtering 7.1 Monte Carlo approximations in Bayesian inference 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 Importance sampling Sequential importance sampling Sequential importance resampling Rao–Blackwellized particle filter Exercises Bayesian smoothing equations and exact solutions 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 Bayesian smoothing equations Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother Two-filter smoothing Exercises Extended and unscented smoothing 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 Extended Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother Statistically linearized Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother Unscented Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother Exercises 10 General Gaussian smoothing 10.1 General Gaussian Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother 10.2 Gauss–Hermite Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother 62 64 64 69 75 77 81 86 92 96 96 97 99 103 106 110 114 116 116 117 120 123 129 132 134 134 135 139 142 144 144 146 148 152 154 154 155
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