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THE SINGULARITY IS NEAR (vXpc Science) 奇点临近英文版.pdf
Praise for "The Singularity Is Near"
Summary (Front Flap)
About the Author (Back Flap)
Contents
Acknowledgements
H
s
联系方式
Prologue: The Power of Ideas
Chapter One: The Six Epochs
The Intuitive Linear View Versus The Historical Exponential View
The Six Epochs
The Singularity Is Near
Chapter Two: A Theory of Technological Evolution: The Law of Accelerating Returns
The S-Curve of a Technology as Expressed in its Life Cycle
Moore's Law and Beyond
DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization
The Singularity as Economic Imperative
Chapter Three: Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain
The Sixth Paradigm of Computing Technology: Three- Dimensional Molecular Computing and Emerging Computational Technologies
The Computational Capacity of the Human Brain
The Limits of Computation
Chapter Four: Achieving the Software of Human Intelligence: How to Reverse Engineer the Human Brain
Reverse Engineering the Brain: An Overview of the Task
Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer?
Peering into the Brain
Building Models of the Brain
Interfacing the Brain and Machines
The Accelerating Pace of Reverse Engineering the Brain
Uploading the Human Brain
Chapter Five: GNR: Three Overlapping Revolutions
Genetics: The Intersection of Information and Biology
Nanotechnology: The Intersection of Information and the Physical World
Robotics: Strong AI
Chapter Six: The Impact...
...on the Human Body
...on the Human Brain
...on Human Longevity
...on Warfare: The Remote, Reobotic, Robust, Size-Reduced, Virtual-Reality Paradigm
...on Learning
...on Work
...on Play
..on the Intelligent Destiny of the Cosmos: Why We Are Probably Alone in the Universe
Chapter Seven: Ich bin ein Singularitarian
The Vexing Question of Consciousness
Who Am I? What Am I?
The Singularity as Transcendence
Chapter Eight: The Deeply Intertwined Promise and Peril of GNR
Intertwined Benefits...
...and Dangers
A Panoply of Existential Risks
Preparing the Defenses
The Idea of Relinquishment
Development of Defensive Technologies and the Impact of Regulation
A Program for GNR Defense
Chapter Nine: Response to Critics
A Panoply of Criticisms
The Criticism from Incredulity
The Criticism from Malthus
The Criticism from Software
The Criticism from Analog Processing
The Criticism from the Complexity of Neural Processing
The Criticism from Microtubules and Quantum Computing
The Criticism from the Church-Turing Thesis
The Criticism from Failure Rates
The Criticism from "Lock-In"
The Criticism from Ontology: Can a Computer Be Conscious?
The Criticism from the Rich-Poor Divide
The Criticism from the Likelihood of Government Regulation
The Criticism from Theism
The Criticism from Holism
Epilogue
Resources and Contact Information
#Appendix: The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited
Notes
Prologue: The Power of Ideas
Chapter One: The Six Epochs
Chapter Two: A Theory of Technology Evolution: The Law of Accelerating Returns
Chapter Three: Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain
Chapter Four: Achieving the Software of Human Intelligence: How to Reverse Engineer the Human Brain
Chapter Five: GNR: Three Overlapping Revolutions
Chapter Six: The Impact...
Chapter Seven: Ich bin ein Singularitarian
Chapter Eight: The Deeply Intertwined Promise and Peril of GNR
Chapter Nine: Response to Critics
Epilogue
[Index omitted]
21
100
SUMMARY (FRONT FLAP)
At the onset of the twenty-first century, humanity stands on the verge of the most transforming
and thrilling period in its history. It will be an era in which the very nature of what it means to be
human will be both enriched and challenged, as our species breaks the shackles of it genetic
legacy and achieves inconceivable heights of intelligence, material progress, and longevity.
For over three decades, the great inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil has been one of the
most respected and provocative advocates of the role of technology in our future. In his class The
Age of Spiritual Machine, he presented the daring argument that with the ever-accelerating rate of
technological change, computers would rival the full range of human intelligence at its best. Now,
in The Singularity Is Near, he examines the next step in this inexorable evolutionary process: the
union of human and machine, in which the knowledge and skills embedded in our brains will be
combined with the vastly greater capacity, speed, and knowledge-sharing ability of our own
creations.
The merging is the essence of the Singularity, an era in which our intelligence will
become increasingly nonbiological and trillions of times more powerful than it is today—the
dawning of a new civilization that will enable us to transcend out biological limitations and amplify
our creativity. In this new world, there will be no clear distinction between human and machine,
real reality and virtual reality. We will be able to assume different bodies and take on a range of
personae at will. In practical terms, human aging and illness will be reversed; pollution will be
stopped; world hunger and poverty will be solved. Nanotechnology will make it possible to create
virtually any physical product using inexpensive information processes and will ultimately turn
even death into a soluble problem.
While the social and philosophical ramifications of these changes will be profound, and
the threats they pose considerable, The Singularity Is Near maintains a radically optimistic view of
the future course of human development. As such, it offers a view of the coming age that is both
a dramatic culmination of the centuries of technological ingenuity and a genuinely inspiring vision
of our ultimate destiny.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR (BACK FLAP)
Ray Kurzweil is one of the world's leading inventors, thinkers, and futurists, with a twenty-year
track record of accurate predictions. Called "the restless genius" by The Wall Street Journal and
"the ultimate thinking machine" by Forbes magazine, Kurzweil was selected as one of the top
entrepreneurs by Inc. magazine, which described him as the "rightful heir to Thomas Edison."
PBS selected him as one of "sixteen revolutionaries who made America," along with other
inventors of the past two centuries. An inductee into the National Inventors Hall of Fame and
recipient of the National Medal of Technology, the Lemelson-MIT Prize (the world's largest award
for innovation), thirteen honorary doctorates, and awards from three U.S. presidents, he is the
author of four previous books: Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever (coauthored
with Terry Grossman, M.D.), The Age of Spiritual Machines, The 10% Solution for a Healthy Life,
and The Age of Intelligent Machines.
The Singularity Is Near
A L S O B Y R A Y K U R Z W E I L
The Age of Intelligent Machines
The 10% Solution for a Healthy Life
The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceeds Human Intelligence
Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough To Live Forever (with Terry Grossman, M.D.)
RAY KURZWEIL
The Singularity Is Near
WHEN HUMANS TRANSCEND BIOLOGY
VIKING
V I K I N G
Published by the Penguin Group
Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street, New York, New York 10014, U.S.A. Penguin Group (Canada), 10 Alcorn Avenue,
Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4V 3B2 (a division of Pearson Penguin Canada Inc.) Penguin Books Ltd, 80 Strand, London WC2R
0RL, England Penguin Ireland, 25 St. Stephen's Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Books
Australia Ltd, 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) Penguin
Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi—110 017, India Penguin Group (NZ), Cnr Airborne and
Rosedale Roads, Albany, Auckland 1310, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) Penguin Books (South Africa)
(Pty) Ltd, 24 Strudee Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196, South Africa
Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England
First Published in 2005 by Viking Penguin, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Copyright © Ray Kurzweil, 2005
All rights reserved Photograph on p. 368 by Helene DeLillo, 2005
Grateful acknowledgment is made for permission to reprint excerpts from the following copyrighted works:
"Plastic Fantastic Lover" by Marty Balin, performed by Jefferson Airplane. Ice Bag Publishing Corp. "What I Am" by Edie Arlisa
Brickell, Kenneth Neil Withrow, John Bradley Houser, John Walter Bush, Brandon Aly. © 1988 by Geffen Music, Edie Briskell
Songs, Withrow Publishing, Enlightened Kitty Music, Strange Mind Productions. All rights reserved. "Season of the Witch" by
Donovan Leitch. © 1996 by Donovan (Music) Limited. Copyright renewed. International copyright secured. Used by permission. All
rights reserved. World right administered by Peermusic (UK) Ltd. "Sailing to Byzantium" from The Collected Works of W. B. Yeats,
Volume I: The Poems, revised edited by Richard J. Finneran. Copyright © 1928 by The Macmillan Company; copyright renewed ©
1956 by Georgie Yeats. Reprinted with permission of Scribner, an imprint of Simon & Schuster Adult Publishing Group and A. P.
Watt Ltd on behalf of Michael B. Yeats.
L I B R A R Y O F C O N G R E S S C A T A L O G I N G - I N - P U B L I C A T I O N D A T A
Kurzweil, Ray.
I. Title.
QP376.K85 2005
153.9—dc22 2004061231
Printed in the United States of America Set in Minion Designed by Amy Hill
Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be resproduced, stored in or introduced
into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise),
without the prior written permission of both the copyright owner and the above publisher of this book.
The scanning, uploading, and distribution of this book via the Internet or via any other means without the permission of the publisher
is illegal and punishable by law. Please purchase only authorized electronic editions and do not participate in or encourage electronic
piracy of copyrightable materials. Your support of the author's rights is appreciated.
The singularity is near: when humans trascend biology / Ray Kurzweil.
Includes bibliographical references (p. ).
ISBN 0-670-03384-7
1. Brain—Evolution. 2. Human evolution. 3. Genetics. 4. Nanotechnology. 5. Robotics.
p. cm.
To my mother, Hannah,
who provided me with the courage to seek the ideas
to confront any challenge
Contents
Acknowledgments
Prologue
The Power of Ideas
CHAPTER ONE
The Six Epochs
The Intuitive Linear View Versus the Historical Exponential View
The Six Epochs
17
20
24
26
29
Epoch One: Physics and Chemistry. Epoch Two: Biology and DNA. Epoch Three: Brains. Epoch
Four: Technology. Epoch Five: The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence. Epoch
Six: The Universe Wakes Up.
The Singularity Is Near
CHAPTER TWO
A Theory of Technology Evolution:
The Law of Accelerating Returns
The Nature of Order. The Life Cycle of a Paradigm. Fractal Designs. Farsighted Evolution.
The S-Curve of a Technology as Expressed in Its Life Cycle
The Life Cycle of a Technology. From Goat Skins to Downloads.
Moore's Law and Beyond
Moore's Law: Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? The Fifth Paradigm. Fractal Dimensions and the Brain.
DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization
Information, Order, and Evolution: The Insights from Wolfram and Fredkin's Cellular Automata.
Can We Evolve Artificial Intelligence from Simple Rules?
33
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55
62
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