GeNIe模型用户使用手册（2019版）.pdf

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Table of Contents

Read me first

Hello GeNIe!

Introduction

Guide to GeNIe manual

GeNIe Modeler

SMILE Engine

Distribution information

GeNIe on a Mac

Disclaimer

Acknowledgments

Decision-theoretic modeling

Decision analysis

Discrete and continuous variables

Probability

Utility

Bayesian networks

Influence diagrams

Bayesian updating

Solving decision models

Changes in structure

Decision support systems

Computational complexity

Building blocks of GeNIe

Introduction

GeNIe workspace

Introduction

The menu bar

Graph view

Tree view

Status bar

Case manager

Output window

Help menu

Components of GeNIe models

Node types

Canonical models

Multi-attribute utility nodes

Submodels

Arcs

Node status icons

Text boxes

Annotations

Model and component properties

Network properties

Submodel properties

Tools menu and Standard toolbar

Node properties

Visual appearance, layout, and navigation

Introduction

Viewing nodes in the Graph View

Zooming and full screen mode

Format toolbar and Layout menu

Graph layout functions

Selection of model elements

Model navigation tools

Saving and loading models in GeNIe

Introduction

File menu

XDSL file format

DSL file format

Ergo file format

Netica file format

BN interchange format

Hugin file format

KI file format

Inference algorithms

Introduction

Immediate and lazy evaluation

Relevance reasoning

Node menu

Network menu

Bayesian networks algorithms

Exact algorithms

Clustering algorithm

Relevance-based decomposition

Polytree algorithm

Stochastic sampling algorithms

Probabilistic Logic Sampling

Likelihood Sampling

Backward Sampling

AIS algorithm

EPIS Sampling

Special algorithms

Probability of evidence

Annealed MAP

Influence diagrams algorithms

Policy evaluation

Find Best Policy

Algorithms for continuous and hybrid models

Introduction

Autodiscretization

Hybrid Forward Sampling

Obfuscation

Program options

Keyboard shortcuts

Using GeNIe

Introduction

Bayesian networks

Building a Bayesian network

Useful structural transformations

Entering and retracting evidence

Virtual evidence

Viewing results

Strength of influences

Controlling values

Sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks

Influence diagrams

Building an influence diagram

Viewing results

Sensitivity analysis in influence diagrams

Value of information

Support for diagnosis

Introduction

Diagnosis menu

Diagnosis toolbar

Enabling diagnostic extensions

Spreadsheet view

Testing window

Diagnostic case management

Cost of observation

Learning

Data format

Accessing data

Data menu

Cleaning data

Knowledge editor

Pattern editor

Structural learning

Introduction

Bayesian Search

Greedy Thick Thinning

Tree Augmented Naive Bayes

Augmented Naive Bayes

Naive Bayes

Learning parameters

Generating a data file

Validation

Dynamic Bayesian networks

Introduction

Creating DBN

Inference in DBNs

Learning DBN parameters

Equation-based and hybrid models

Introduction

Constructing equation-based models

Writing equations in GeNIe

Introduction

Functions

Probability distributions

Arithmetic functions

Combinatoric functions

Trigonometric functions

Hyperbolic functions

Logical/Conditional functions

Operators

Hybrid models

Inference in equation-based and hybrid models

Viewing results in equation-based models

Resources

Books

Research papers

Conferences

Model repositories

Social Media

References

Index

GeNIe Modeler USER MANUAL ® Version 2.3.R4, Built on 2/27/2019 BayesFusion, LLC

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Table of Contents 3 1. Read me first 2. Hello GeNIe! Introduction 3. 9 13 31 Guide to GeNIe manual .................................................................................................... 32 GeNIe Modeler .................................................................................................................. 32 SMILE Engine ..................................................................................................................... 33 Distribution information .................................................................................................. 34 GeNIe on a Mac ................................................................................................................. 36 Copyright notice ................................................................................................................ 37 Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................... 39 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................. 39 41 Decision analysis ................................................................................................................ 42 Discrete and continuous variables .................................................................................. 42 Probability ......................................................................................................................... 43 Utility .................................................................................................................................. 44 Bayesian networks ............................................................................................................ 45 Influence diagrams ............................................................................................................ 55 Bayesian updating ............................................................................................................. 57 Solving decision models ................................................................................................... 58 Changes in structure ......................................................................................................... 59 Decision support systems ................................................................................................. 59 Computational complexity ............................................................................................... 62 65 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 66 GeNIe workspace ............................................................................................................... 67 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 67 The menu bar .............................................................................................................. 69 Graph view .................................................................................................................. 70 Tree view ..................................................................................................................... 91 Status bar .................................................................................................................... 94 Case manager ............................................................................................................. 96 Output window .......................................................................................................... 101 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11 5.1 5.2 5.2.1 5.2.2 5.2.3 5.2.4 5.2.5 5.2.6 5.2.7 4. Decision-theoretic modeling 5. Building blocks of GeNIe GeNIe Modeler Version 2.3.R4, Built on 2/27/2019

Table of Contents 4 5.2.8 5.3 5.3.1 5.3.2 5.3.3 5.3.4 5.3.5 5.3.6 5.3.7 5.3.8 5.4 5.4.1 5.4.2 5.4.3 5.4.4 5.5 5.5.1 5.5.2 5.5.3 5.5.4 5.5.5 5.5.6 5.5.7 5.6 5.6.1 5.6.2 5.6.3 5.6.4 5.6.5 5.6.6 5.6.7 5.6.8 5.6.9 5.7 5.7.1 5.7.2 5.7.3 5.7.4 5.7.5 5.7.6 Help menu ................................................................................................................. 102 Components of GeNIe models ........................................................................................ 103 Node types ................................................................................................................ 103 Canonical models ...................................................................................................... 106 Multi-attribute utility nodes ...................................................................................... 122 Submodels ................................................................................................................. 127 Arcs ............................................................................................................................ 137 Node status icons ...................................................................................................... 141 Text boxes ................................................................................................................. 144 Annotations ............................................................................................................... 145 Model and component properties ................................................................................ 148 Network properties .................................................................................................... 148 Submodel properties ................................................................................................. 157 Tools menu and Standard toolbar ............................................................................. 160 Node properties ......................................................................................................... 162 Visual appearance, layout, and navigation .................................................................. 197 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 197 Viewing nodes in the Graph View ............................................................................. 197 Zooming and full screen mode .................................................................................. 200 Format toolbar and Layout menu .............................................................................. 201 Graph layout functions .............................................................................................. 206 Selection of model elements ..................................................................................... 208 Model navigation tools ............................................................................................. 210 Saving and loading models in GeNIe ............................................................................. 212 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 212 File menu ................................................................................................................... 217 XDSL file format ......................................................................................................... 221 DSL file format ........................................................................................................... 221 Ergo file format ......................................................................................................... 222 Netica file format ...................................................................................................... 223 BN interchange format .............................................................................................. 224 Hugin file format ....................................................................................................... 224 KI file format .............................................................................................................. 224 Inference algorithms ....................................................................................................... 224 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 224 Immediate and lazy evaluation ................................................................................. 227 Relevance reasoning ................................................................................................. 228 Node menu ................................................................................................................ 232 Network menu ........................................................................................................... 234 Bayesian networks algorithms .................................................................................. 236 GeNIe Modeler Version 2.3.R4, Built on 2/27/2019

Table of Contents 5 5.7.6.1 5.7.6.2 5.7.6.3 5.7.7 5.7.8 5.7.7.1 5.7.7.2 5.7.8.1 5.7.8.2 5.7.8.3 6. Using GeNIe 5.7.6.1.1 5.7.6.1.2 5.7.6.1.3 5.7.6.2.1 5.7.6.2.2 5.7.6.2.3 5.7.6.2.4 5.7.6.2.5 5.7.6.3.1 5.7.6.3.2 Exact algorithms ......................................................................................................................................... 236 Clustering algorithm ............................................................................................................................ 236 Relevance-based decomposition ....................................................................................................... 238 Polytree algorithm ................................................................................................................................ 238 Stochastic sampling algorithms .............................................................................................................. 239 Probabilistic Logic Sampling ............................................................................................................. 239 Likelihood Sampling ............................................................................................................................. 239 Backward Sampling .............................................................................................................................. 239 AIS algorithm ......................................................................................................................................... 239 EPIS Sampling ........................................................................................................................................ 240 Special algorithms ..................................................................................................................................... 241 Probability of evidence ....................................................................................................................... 241 Annealed MAP ....................................................................................................................................... 245 Influence diagrams algorithms ................................................................................. 252 Policy evaluation ........................................................................................................................................ 252 Find Best Policy ........................................................................................................................................... 253 Algorithms for continuous and hybrid models .......................................................... 254 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 254 Autodiscretization ...................................................................................................................................... 255 Hybrid Forward Sampling ......................................................................................................................... 258 Obfuscation ..................................................................................................................... 259 Program options ............................................................................................................. 265 Keyboard shortcuts ......................................................................................................... 271 275 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 276 Bayesian networks .......................................................................................................... 276 Building a Bayesian network ..................................................................................... 276 Useful structural transformations ............................................................................. 276 Entering and retracting evidence .............................................................................. 282 Virtual evidence ........................................................................................................ 287 Viewing results .......................................................................................................... 290 Strength of influences ............................................................................................... 297 Controlling values ..................................................................................................... 304 Sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks ................................................................ 307 Influence diagrams .......................................................................................................... 314 Building an influence diagram .................................................................................. 314 Viewing results .......................................................................................................... 322 Sensitivity analysis in influence diagrams ................................................................ 323 Value of information ................................................................................................. 328 Support for diagnosis ..................................................................................................... 335 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 335 5.8 5.9 5.10 6.1 6.2 6.2.1 6.2.2 6.2.3 6.2.4 6.2.5 6.2.6 6.2.7 6.2.8 6.3 6.3.1 6.3.2 6.3.3 6.3.4 6.4 6.4.1 GeNIe Modeler Version 2.3.R4, Built on 2/27/2019

Table of Contents 6 6.4.2 6.4.3 6.4.4 6.4.5 6.4.6 6.4.7 6.4.8 6.5 6.5.1 6.5.2 6.5.3 6.5.4 6.5.5 6.5.6 6.5.7 6.5.7.1 6.5.7.2 6.5.7.3 6.5.7.4 6.5.7.5 6.5.7.6 6.5.7.7 Diagnosis menu ......................................................................................................... 336 Diagnosis toolbar ...................................................................................................... 339 Enabling diagnostic extensions ................................................................................ 340 Spreadsheet view ...................................................................................................... 349 Testing window ......................................................................................................... 356 Diagnostic case management ................................................................................... 363 Cost of observation ................................................................................................... 366 Learning ........................................................................................................................... 371 Data format ............................................................................................................... 371 Accessing data .......................................................................................................... 372 Data menu ................................................................................................................. 384 Cleaning data ............................................................................................................ 386 Knowledge editor ...................................................................................................... 414 Pattern editor ............................................................................................................ 421 Structural learning ..................................................................................................... 425 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 425 Bayesian Search .......................................................................................................................................... 433 PC ................................................................................................................................................................... 435 Greedy Thick Thinning ............................................................................................................................... 441 Tree Augmented Naive Bayes .................................................................................................................... 443 Augmented Naive Bayes ............................................................................................................................. 445 Naive Bayes .................................................................................................................................................. 448 Learning parameters ................................................................................................. 451 Generating a data file ............................................................................................... 458 Validation .................................................................................................................. 462 Dynamic Bayesian networks .......................................................................................... 484 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 484 Creating DBN ............................................................................................................. 485 Inference in DBNs ..................................................................................................... 492 Learning DBN parameters ......................................................................................... 502 Equation-based and hybrid models .............................................................................. 508 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 508 Constructing equation-based models ....................................................................... 508 Writing equations in GeNIe ....................................................................................... 514 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 514 Functions ...................................................................................................................................................... 518 Probability distributions .................................................................................................................... 518 Arithmetic functions ............................................................................................................................ 526 Combinatoric functions ...................................................................................................................... 528 Trigonometric functions ...................................................................................................................... 529 Hyperbolic functions ........................................................................................................................... 529 Logical/Conditional functions ........................................................................................................... 530 Operators ..................................................................................................................................................... 531 6.5.8 6.5.9 6.5.10 6.6 6.6.1 6.6.2 6.6.3 6.6.4 6.7 6.7.1 6.7.2 6.7.3 6.7.3.1 6.7.3.2 6.7.3.2.1 6.7.3.2.2 6.7.3.2.3 6.7.3.2.4 6.7.3.2.5 6.7.3.2.6 6.7.3.3 GeNIe Modeler Version 2.3.R4, Built on 2/27/2019

Table of Contents 7 7. Resources Hybrid models ........................................................................................................... 533 Inference in equation-based and hybrid models ...................................................... 536 Viewing results in equation-based models ............................................................... 546 559 Books ................................................................................................................................ 560 Research papers .............................................................................................................. 560 Conferences ..................................................................................................................... 561 Model repositories .......................................................................................................... 562 Social Media .................................................................................................................... 562 References ........................................................................................................................ 563 571 6.7.4 6.7.5 6.7.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 Index GeNIe Modeler Version 2.3.R4, Built on 2/27/2019

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