BASTIAT BICENTENNIAL JUNE 2001 What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen by Frédéric Bastiat In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simul- taneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.1 There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen. Yet this difference is tremendous; for it almost always happens that when the immedi- ate consequence is favorable, the later conse- quences are disastrous, and vice versa. Whence it follows that the bad economist pur- sues a small present good that will be fol- lowed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil. The same thing, of course, is true of health and morals. Often, the sweeter the first fruit of a habit, the more bitter are its later fruits: for example, debauchery, sloth, prodigality. When a man is impressed by the effect that is seen and has not yet learned to discern the effects that are not seen, he indulges in deplorable habits, not only through natural inclination, but deliberately. This excerpt is from the first chapter of Selected Essays on Political Economy, translated by Seymour Cain and edited by George B. de Huszar, published by the Foundation for Economic Education. This explains man’s necessarily painful evolution. Ignorance surrounds him at his cra- dle; therefore, he regulates his acts according to their first consequences, the only ones that, in his infancy, he can see. It is only after a long time that he learns to take account of the others. Two very different masters teach him this lesson: experience and foresight. Experi- ence teaches efficaciously but brutally. It instructs us in all the effects of an act by mak- ing us feel them, and we cannot fail to learn eventually, from having been burned our- selves, that fire burns. I should prefer, in so far as possible, to replace this rude teacher with one more gentle: foresight. For that rea- son I shall investigate the consequences of several economic phenomena, contrasting those that are seen with those that are not seen. The Broken Window Have you ever been witness to the fury of that solid citizen, James Goodfellow,2 when his incorrigible son has happened to break a 1. [This pamphlet, published in July 1850, is the last that Bastiat wrote. It had been promised to the public for more than a year. Its publication had been delayed because the author had lost the manu- script when he moved his household from the rue de Choiseul to the rue d’Alger. After a long and fruitless search, he decided to rewrite his work entirely, and chose as the principal basis of his demonstra- tions some speeches recently delivered in the National Assembly. When this task was finished, he reproached himself with having been too serious, threw the second manuscript into the fire, and wrote the one which we reprint.—Editor.] 2. [In French, Jacques Bonhomme, used like “John Bull” in Eng- lish to represent the practical, responsible, unassuming average man.—Translator.] 12 

pane of glass? If you have been present at this spectacle, certainly you must also have observed that the onlookers, even if there are as many as thirty of them, seem with one accord to offer the unfortunate owner the self- same consolation: “It’s an ill wind that blows nobody some good. Such accidents keep industry going. Everybody has to make a liv- ing. What would become of the glaziers if no one ever broke a window?” Now, this formula of condolence contains a whole theory that it is a good idea for us to expose, flagrante delicto, in this very simple case, since it is exactly the same as that which, unfortunately, underlies most of our economic institutions. Suppose that it will cost six francs to repair the damage. If you mean that the accident gives six francs’ worth of encouragement to the aforesaid industry, I agree. I do not contest it in any way; your reasoning is correct. The glazier will come, do his job, receive six francs, congratulate himself, and bless in his heart the careless child. That is what is seen. But if, by way of deduction, you conclude, as happens only too often, that it is good to break windows, that it helps to circulate money, that it results in encouraging industry in general, I am obliged to cry out: That will never do! Your theory stops at what is seen. It does not take account of what is not seen. It is not seen that, since our citizen has spent six francs for one thing, he will not be able to spend them for another. It is not seen that if he had not had a windowpane to replace, he would have replaced, for example, his worn-out shoes or added another book to his library. In brief, he would have put his six francs to some use or other for which he will not now have them. Let us next consider industry in general. The window having been broken, the glass industry gets six francs’ worth of encourage- ment; that is what is seen. If the window had not been broken, the shoe industry (or some other) would have received six francs’ worth of encouragement; that is what is not seen. And if we were to take into consideration what is not seen, because it is a negative fac- tor, as well as what is seen, because it is a pos- 13 itive factor, we should understand that there is no benefit to industry in general or to nation- al employment as a whole, whether windows are broken or not broken. Now let us consider James Goodfellow. On the first hypothesis, that of the broken window, he spends six francs and has, neither more nor less than before, the enjoyment of one window. On the second, that in which the accident did not happen, he would have spent six francs for new shoes and would have had the enjoyment of a pair of shoes as well as of a window. Now, if James Goodfellow is part of soci- ety, we must conclude that society, consider- ing its labors and its enjoyments, has lost the value of the broken window. From which, by generalizing, we arrive at this unexpected conclusion: “Society loses the value of objects unnecessarily destroyed,” and at this aphorism, which will make the hair of the protectionists stand on end: “To break, to destroy, to dissipate is not to encourage national employment,” or more briefly: “Destruction is not profitable.” What will the Moniteur industriel3 say to this, or the disciples of the estimable M. de Saint-Chamans,4 who has calculated with such precision what industry would gain from the burning of Paris, because of the houses that would have to be rebuilt? I am sorry to upset his ingenious calcula- tions, especially since their spirit has passed into our legislation. But I beg him to begin them again, entering what is not seen in the ledger beside what is seen. The reader must apply himself to observe that there are not only two people, but three, in the little drama that I have presented. The one, James Goodfellow, represents the con- sumer, reduced by destruction to one enjoy- ment instead of two. The other, under the fig- ure of the glazier, shows us the producer whose industry the accident encourages. The 3. [Newspaper of the Committee for the Defense of Domestic Industry, a protectionist organization.—Translator.] 4. [Auguste, Vicomte de Saint-Chamans (1777–1861), Deputy and Councillor of State under the Restoration, protectionist and upholder of the balance of trade. His celebrated stand on the “obsta- cle” here quoted by Bastiat comes from his Nouvel essai sur la richesse des nations, 1824. This work was later (1852) incorporated in his Traité d’économie politique.—Translator.] 

14 IDEAS ON LIBERTY • JUNE 2001 third is the shoemaker (or any other manufac- turer) whose industry is correspondingly dis- couraged by the same cause. It is this third person who is always in the shadow, and who, personifying what is not seen, is an essential element of the problem. It is he who makes us understand how absurd it is to see a profit in destruction. It is he who will soon teach us that it is equally absurd to see a profit in trade restriction, which is, after all, nothing more nor less than partial destruction. So, if you get to the bottom of all the arguments advanced in favor of restrictionist measures, you will find only a paraphrase of that common cliché: “What would become of the glaziers if no one 䡺 ever broke any windows?” FEE on the Road Each year, FEE holds a number of regional seminars , student programs, and evening lecture events. These offer students, community leaders, teachers, business professionals, and other interested laymen an opportunity to hear expert speakers discuss topics in economics, history, public policy, political theory, and current events. This year, plan to visit us at any of the following locations: July 26 July 27-28 September 27 September 28 November 15 Chicago, Illinois Milwaukee, Wisconsin Denver, Colorado Houston, Texas San Francisco, California For more information on these programs, please visit www.fee.org/seminars/seminars.html or contact: Director of Seminars Foundation for Economic Education 30 South Broadway Irvington-on-Hudson, NY 10533 seminars@fee.org Phone: Fax: (914) 591-7230, ext. 223 (914) 591-8910