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3GFFIRS 06/27/2013 12:35:44 Page i TESTING

3GFFIRS 06/27/2013 12:35:44 Page iii TESTING T HE M O ST PO WERFUL WA Y T O T URN CLICK S IN T O CUST O M ERS DAN SIROKER PETE KOOMEN WITH CARA HARSHMAN

3GFFIRS 06/27/2013 12:35:44 Page iv Cover design: Ryan Myers Copyright 2013 by Dan Siroker and Pete Koomen. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750 8400, fax (978) 646 8600, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748 6011, fax (201) 748 6008, or online at www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with the respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and speci cally disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. tness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales For general information about our other products and services, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762 2974, outside the United States at (317) 572 3993 or fax (317) 572 4002. Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on- demand. If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Siroker, Dan. A/B testing : the most powerful way to turn clicks into customers / Dan Siroker, Pete Koomen. pages cm Includes index. ISBN 978-1-118-53609-4 (cloth); 978-1-118-65917-5 (ebk); ISBN 978-1-118-65920-5 (ebk) 1. Organizational effectiveness. 2. Multimedia systems Social aspects. 3. Application software Testing. I. Koomen, Pete, 1982- II. Title. HD58.9.S5447 2013 658.8 3402854678 dc23 Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2013016038

3GFTOC 06/27/2013 13:20:17 Page v Contents Chapter 1 How A/B Testing Helped Win the White House Twice PART I LESSONS LEARNED FROM 200,000 A/B TESTS (AND COUNTING) Chapter 2 What to Test Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Seek the Global Maximum Less Is More: Reduce Choices Chapter 5 Words Matter: Focus on Your Call to Action Chapter 6 Fail Fast and Learn PART II IMPLEMENTING A/B TESTING: PLAY-BY-PLAY GUIDE Chapter 7 Choose the Solution That's Right for Your Organization 1 17 33 47 59 71 87 v

3GFTOC 06/27/2013 13:20:17 Page vi vi CONTENTS Chapter 8 The Cure for the HiPPO Syndrome Chapter 9 The A/B Testing Dream Team Chapter 10 Iterate, Iterate, Iterate PART III ADVANCED TOPICS IN A/B TESTING Chapter 11 How A/B Tests Can Go Awry 99 109 119 135 Chapter 12 Beyond the Page: Non-Website A/B Testing 143 Chapter 13 Personalize, Personalize, Personalize Conclusion Appendix 1: 60 Things to A/B Test Appendix 2: Metrics and the Statistics behind A/B Testing Acknowledgments Index 155 165 167 179 195 197

A/B Testing: The Most Powerful Way to Turn Clicks into Customers By Dan Siroker, Pete Koomen and Cara Harshman Copyright © 2013 by Dan Siroker and Pete Koomen. CHAPTER1 How A/B Testing Helped Win the White House Twice The $57 Million Button

It was 2007 when then-Senator Barack Obama was running for President, and no one but the Des Moines Register seemed to think he had a chance of winning the Democratic primary. DAN: I was a product manager at Google at the time, and I d seen Obama speak at our headquarters several weeks prior to the primary election. I am a big believer in reason and facts and evidence and science and feedback everything that allows you to do what you do. That s what we should be doing in our government, Obama told the packed auditorium. I think that many of you can help me, so I want you to be involved. He probably meant that he wanted donations, or maybe votes, but I took him literally. I took a leave of absence from Google initially and eventually quit my job to move from California to Chicago to join the campaign. I joined what was being called the new media team. They used the phrase new media because it encompassed every- thing that didn t typically t into traditional political cam- paigns: email, social media, blogging, SMS, and the web. The team had competent bloggers, designers, and email copywriters; I wondered where I might be able to make an impact. One thing stood out to me: a red button. Online donations to the campaign came from subscribers to the email newsletter; subscriptions for this came from the campaign website s signup form; and the signup form came as a result of clicking a red button that said Sign Up. This was 3

4 HOW A/B TESTING HELPED WIN THE WHITE HOUSE TWICE the gateway through which all of Obama s email supporters had to pass; it all came down to one button. So, one simple, humble question immediately became pivotal. Is This the Right Button? Is this our best chance to get every single supporter, and every single dollar, that we possibly can? I had zero political experience at the time, and little clout within the organization. I didn t have a politico s intuition about what the button or the image above it should look like nor the persuasive rhetoric required to run any pro- posed improvements up the chain of command. All I had was one insistent question: Is this button the absolute best? and the desire to nd the answer. There was only one way to know for certain. Knowing little about politics or why certain words and images might be more moving or more effective than others, I suggested experimenting to gure out what worked to drive the most signups. Our team tested four different labels for the button ( Sign Up, Join Us Now, and Learn More ) and six different media (images and videos) above it to see which combination induced the most visitors to engage and sign up. Sign Up Now, Our team took bets on which variation (Figures 1.1 through 1.3) would perform best at garnering email signups. Most folks put their money on Sam s Video, a compilation of some of the most powerful moments in Obama s speeches. We assumedany video with not just Obama s image, but his voice and mes- sage would lead more people to enter their email addresses than a simple static image would. Boy, were we wrong.

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