GSMA：2021年全球移动趋势报告.pdf-资料库

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The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with nearly 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at www.gsma.com Follow the GSMA on Twitter: @GSMA GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide – from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. www.gsmaintelligence.com info@gsmaintelligence.com

3 GLOBAL MOBILE TRENDS Growth beyond connectivity 5G outlook Network transformation IoT and enterprise verticals The digital consumer The next billion Regional outlook Telecoms in the global macro context Covid-19 emerges into an already uncertain world

Telecoms in the global macro context 4 A shock to the world at large • The arrival of a global pandemic could hardly have been a more inauspicious welcome to the new decade. Second spikes in the US and Europe have driven Covid-19 to a case count that is 160× the February toll Counts indexed to values in February 2020 • Since the original outbreak and early infection figures from Wuhan in January, the outbreak has shifted west and then south to register a total of 63 million infections (as of the end of November), equivalent to 1 in every 100 people worldwide, and nearly 1.5 million deaths. • Aside from the obvious public health crisis, Covid-19 has induced drastic economic restrictions across the world. The IMF forecasts global GDP will drop 4.4% in real terms in 2020, although the rate will be worse in many countries, with far-reaching consequences for unemployment. • There is, at last, some light at the end of the tunnel following read-outs from multiple vaccine trials. Pending distribution (itself a monumental challenge, particularly in developing countries with less mature health systems), a slow recovery should begin to take hold in mid-2021, though with still unknown and potentially long-lasting impacts on how people socialise and work. 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Positive cases Deaths Figures for cases and deaths are per month worldwide and expressed relative to their respective values for February 2020. Source GSMA Intelligence, ourworldindata.org

Telecoms in the global macro context 5 Telecoms takes a hit but the impact is less severe than on the broader economy • Because of its consumer-facing nature, the telecoms sector behaves cyclically relative to the economy. Precedents – most recently the 2008 financial crash – suggest that the impact compared to that on GDP in a recession is less severe and lags by 3–6 months. • A lot, however, has changed since 2008, when the iPhone had barely arrived and 4G did not exist. Smartphones are now ubiquitous, LTE is widespread (or on the rise in emerging markets) and businesses are undertaking digital transformation, powered by cloud capacity and low-latency networking (including 5G). In short, mobile and fixed networks are more in demand than they used to be. • Among the five most affected countries (in terms of deaths), the hit on mobile revenue has been about half that on GDP in high-income countries (the US and UK are shown in the chart). This is worse than tech and internet groups such as Google and Facebook but far better than retail, travel and hospitality. • The same relationship is not true in many developing countries, where the absence of fixed line infrastructure makes mobile the default – often only – means of accessing the internet. Combined with ongoing 4G adoption, this means mobile revenue growth has outperformed the economy by a much wider margin. Aggregate change in 2020 versus pre-pandemic levels in 2019 Five worst-hit countries* 17.6% 2.0% 0.6% -2.5% -4.3% -5.4% -5.8% -9.8% -9.0% -10.3% US UK Brazil Mexico India Real GDP Mobile revenues *Ranked by deaths from Covid-19 as of 30 September. Revenues = 9 months to September versus same period of 2019. GDP = forecasts for 2020 versus 2019. Source GSMA Intelligence, IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2020)

Telecoms in the global macro context 6 The Covid-19 impact has focussed on roaming, handsets and enterprise • While Covid-19 has impacted revenues for many sectors, for telcos – which have multi-faceted business models – it is important to understand which parts of the business have been most exposed. • Based on reporting from AT&T, Telefónica, Telecom Italia and a handful of others, we are able to discern the negative financial impact directly associated with Covid-19, which has averaged 4–8% of overall revenues. Put differently, this means Covid-19 has shrunk the operator business by 4–8% than would otherwise have been the case. • There is also general uniformity in the impact being concentrated in a loss of roaming business (reduced travel), lower handset upgrades (retail store closures), and discounts and payment holidays afforded to business customers facing lost revenue or even bankruptcy as a result of social distancing. By contrast, actual service revenues have held up fairly well. • AT&T is perhaps the largest converged telco in the world. Its reporting indicates the vulnerability of media licensing, where cinema closures have exacerbated the direct-to- consumer distribution shift being executed by Netflix, Amazon and Disney. Breakdown of Covid-19 impact on revenue for AT&T Q2 2020. Figures are expressed as a share of overall revenue for the same period of the prior year (Q2 2019). -4.1% -6.9% -1.1% -0.6% -1.0% Warner Media Wireless - service Wireless - handsets Latam, Forex and other Total Covid-19 impact Source GSMA Intelligence, AT&T

Telecoms in the global macro context 7 Network resilience has been an out and out positive • The working-from-home phenomenon combined with in- • Network performance has held up across the board for home entertainment as a result of social distancing has led to a huge, sustained rise in data traffic, mostly over fibre but also mobile. • Zoom has become a household name but this, of course, would not be the case without robust networks. consumers and in aid of hospitals and medical professionals. • The pandemic has therefore brought the systemic importance of scaled network infrastructure into sharp relief. Prevailing network performance has more than held up Spain data Mobile 50 40 30 20 10 Fixed 200 160 120 80 40 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-19 Sep-20 Download speed (Mbps) Upload speed (Mbps) Latency (ms) Source GSMA Intelligence analysis, based on SpeedtestIntelligence® data provided by Ookla®

Market valuations shift: the short versus long term Telecoms in the global macro context 8 • While it is simplistic to label different sectors or companies as winners or losers of the pandemic, shifts in stock market valuations are a proxy of the relative Covid-19 financial impact and potential longer term implications for different sectors. • Zoom has become the poster child of 2020 as the go-to platform for people and businesses seeking to maintain contact. By contrast, retail, tourism and airlines have been devastated; Marriot and IAG (owner of British Airways) have lost around 80% of their value. • Telecoms is down by a quarter but is relatively resilient, underscoring the value of reliable connectivity. As a cyclical sector, it will recover in line with the wider economy in 2021. Longer term prospects depend on a renewed growth story from 5G, particularly in enterprise, which will take time to judge. Share price change since the beginning of 2020 Indexed 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan +628% Zoom Full path not shown due to scale +56% Netﬂix +55% Apple +29% Google -14% Disney -28% Telecoms sector (FTSE all world index) -31% Marriott Hotels Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov -75% Carnival Cruise Lines -82% IAG Figures are expressed relative to share price on 2 January 2020. Source Yahoo Finance, GSMA Intelligence

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GSMA：2021年全球移动趋势报告.pdf

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