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Stocks for the Long Run (4th Edition).pdf

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    Contents
    Foreword
    Preface
    Acknowledgments
    Part 1 The Verdict of History
    Chapter 1 Stock and Bond Returns Since 1802
    “Everybody Ought to Be Rich”
    Financial Market Returns from 1802
    The Long-Term Performance of Bonds
    The End of the Gold Standard and Price Stability
    Total Real Returns
    Interpretation of Returns
    Real Returns on Fixed-Income Assets
    The Fall in Fixed-Income Returns
    The Equity Premium
    Worldwide Equity and Bond Returns: Global Stocks for the Long Run
    Conclusion: Stocks for the Long Run
    Appendix 1: Stocks from 1802 to 1870
    Appendix 2: Arithmetic and Geometric Returns
    Chapter 2 Risk, Return, and Portfolio Allocation: Why Stocks Are Less Risky Than Bonds in the Long Run
    Measuring Risk and Return
    Risk and Holding Period
    Investor Returns from Market Peaks
    Standard Measures of Risk
    Varying Correlation between Stock and Bond Returns
    Efficient Frontiers
    Recommended Portfolio Allocations
    Inflation-Indexed Bonds
    Conclusion
    Chapter 3 Stock Indexes: Proxies for the Market
    Market Averages
    The Dow Jones Averages
    Beware the Use of Trend Lines to Predict Future Returns
    Value-Weighted Indexes
    Return Biases in Stock Indexes
    Appendix: What Happened to the Original 12 Dow Industrials?
    Chapter 4 The S&P 500 Index: A Half Century of U.S. Corporate History
    Sector Rotation in the S&P 500 Index
    Top-Performing Firms
    How Bad News for the Firm Becomes Good News for Investors
    Top-Performing Survivor Firms
    Other Firms That Turned Golden
    Outperformance of Original S&P 500 Firms
    Conclusion
    Chapter 5 The Impact of Taxes on Stock and Bond Returns: Stocks Have the Edge
    Historical Taxes on Income and Capital Gains
    A Total After-Tax Returns Index
    The Benefits of Deferring Capital Gains Taxes
    Inflation and the Capital Gains Tax
    Increasingly Favorable Tax Factors for Equities
    Stocks or Bonds in Tax-Deferred Accounts?
    Conclusion
    Appendix: History of the Tax Code
    Chapter 6 The Investment View of Stocks: How Fickle Markets Overwhelm Historical Facts
    Early Views of Stock Investing
    A Radical Shift in Sentiment
    The Postcrash View of Stock Returns
    The Beginning of the Great Bull Market
    Warnings of Overspeculation
    The Top of the Bubble
    The Bear Market and Its Aftermath
    Part 2 Valuation, Style Investing, and Global Markets
    Chapter 7 Stocks: Sources and Measures of Market Value
    An Evil Omen Returns
    Valuation of Cash Flows from Stocks
    Earnings Concepts
    Earnings Quality
    Downward Biases in Earnings
    Historical Yardsticks for Valuing the Market
    Conclusion
    Chapter 8 The Impact of Economic Growth on Market Valuation and the Coming Age Wave
    GDP Growth and Stock Returns
    Economic Growth and Stock Returns
    Factors That Raise Valuation Ratios
    The Age Wage
    Conclusion
    Chapter 9 Outperforming the Market: The Importance of Size, Dividend Yields, and Price-to-Earnings Ratios
    Stocks That Outperform the Market
    Small- and Large-Cap Stocks
    Valuation
    Dividend Yields
    Price-to-Earnings (P-E) Ratios
    Price-to-Book Ratios
    Combining Size and Valuation Criteria
    Initial Public Offerings: The Disappointing Overall Returns on New Small-Cap Growth Companies
    The Nature of Growth and Value Stocks
    Explanations of Size and Valuation Effects
    Conclusion
    Chapter 10 Global Investing and the Rise of China, India, and the Emerging Markets
    The World’s Population, Production, and Equity Capital
    Cycles in Foreign Markets
    Diversification in World Markets
    The World in 2050
    Conclusion
    Appendix: The Largest Non-U.S.-Based Companies
    Part 3 How the Economic Environment Impacts Stocks
    Chapter 11 Gold, Monetary Policy, and Inflation
    Money and Prices
    The Gold Standard
    The Establishment of the Federal Reserve
    The Fall of the Gold Standard
    Postdevaluation Monetary Policy
    Postgold Monetary Policy
    The Federal Reserve and Money Creation
    How the Fed’s Actions Affect Interest Rates
    Stocks as Hedges against Inflation
    Why Stocks Fail as a Short-Term Inflation Hedge
    Conclusion
    Chapter 12 Stocks and the Business Cycle
    Who Calls the Business Cycle?
    Stock Returns around Business Cycle Turning Points
    Gains through Timing the Business Cycle
    How Hard Is It to Predict the Business Cycle?
    Conclusion
    Chapter 13 When World Events Impact Financial Markets
    What Moves the Market?
    Uncertainty and the Market
    Democrats and Republicans
    Stocks and War
    Conclusion
    Chapter 14 Stocks, Bonds, and the Flow of Economic Data
    Economic Data and the Market
    Principles of Market Reaction
    Information Content of Data Releases
    Economic Growth and Stock Prices
    The Employment Report
    The Cycle of Announcements
    Inflation Reports
    Impact on Financial Markets
    Central Bank Policy
    Conclusion
    Part 4 Stock Fluctuations in the Short Run
    Chapter 15 The Rise of Exchange-Traded Funds, Stock Index Futures, and Options
    Exchange-Traded Funds
    Stock Index Futures
    Basics of the Futures Markets
    Index Arbitrage
    Predicting the New York Open with Globex Trading
    Double and Triple Witching
    Margin and Leverage
    Using ETFs or Futures
    Where to Put Your Indexed Investments: ETFs, Futures, or Index Mutual Funds?
    Index Options
    The Importance of Indexed Products
    Chapter 16 Market Volatility
    The Stock Market Crash of October 1987
    The Causes of the October 1987 Crash
    Circuit Breakers
    The Nature of Market Volatility
    Historical Trends of Stock Volatility
    The Volatility Index (VIX)
    Recent Low Volatility
    The Distribution of Large Daily Changes
    The Economics of Market Volatility
    The Significance of Market Volatility
    Chapter 17 Technical Analysis and Investing with the Trend
    The Nature of Technical Analysis
    Charles Dow, Technical Analyst
    The Randomness of Stock Prices
    Simulations of Random Stock Prices
    Trending Markets and Price Reversals
    Moving Averages
    Momentum Investing
    Conclusion
    Chapter 18 Calendar Anomalies
    Seasonal Anomalies
    The January Effect
    Large Monthly Returns
    The September Effect
    Other Seasonal Returns
    Day-of-the-Week Effects
    What’s an Investor to Do?
    Chapter 19 Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing
    The Technology Bubble, 1999 to 2001
    Behavioral Finance
    Part 5 Building Wealth Through Stocks
    Chapter 20 Fund Performance, Indexing, and Beating the Market
    The Performance of Equity Mutual Funds
    Finding Skilled Money Managers
    Reasons for Underperformance of Managed Money
    A Little Learning Is a Dangerous Thing
    Profiting from Informed Trading
    How Costs Affect Returns
    The Increased Popularity of Passive Investing
    The Pitfalls of Capitalization-Weighted Indexing
    Fundamentally Weighted versus Capitalization-Weighted Indexation
    The History of Fundamentally Weighted Indexation
    Conclusion
    Chapter 21 Structuring a Portfolio for Long-Term Growth
    Practical Aspects of Investing
    Guides to Successful Investing
    Implementing the Plan and the Role of an Investment Advisor
    Concluding Comment
    Index
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    STOCKSFORTHE LONGRUN
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    F o u r t h E d i t i o n STOCKSFORTHE LONGRUN The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies JEREMY J. SIEGEL Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania New York Chicago San Francisco Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan New Delhi San Juan Seoul Singapore Sydney Toronto
    Copyright © 2008, 2002, 1998, 1994 by Jeremy J. Siegel. All rights reserved. Manufactured in the United States of America. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. 0-07-164392-3 The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: 0-07-149470-7. All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners. Rather than put a trademark symbol after every occurrence of a trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark. Where such designations appear in this book, they have been printed with initial caps. McGraw-Hill eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales promotions, or for use in corporate training programs. For more information, please contact George Hoare, Special Sales, at george_hoare@mcgraw-hill.com or (212) 904-4069. TERMS OF USE This is a copyrighted work and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (“McGraw-Hill”) and its licensors reserve all rights in and to the work. Use of this work is subject to these terms. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act of 1976 and the right to store and retrieve one copy of the work, you may not decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, reproduce, modify, create derivative works based upon, transmit, distribute, disseminate, sell, publish or sublicense the work or any part of it without McGraw-Hill’s prior consent. You may use the work for your own noncommercial and personal use; any other use of the work is strictly prohibited. Your right to use the work may be terminated if you fail to comply with these terms. THE WORK IS PROVIDED “AS IS.” McGRAW-HILL AND ITS LICENSORS MAKE NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, ADEQUACY OR COMPLETENESS OF OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THE WORK, INCLUDING ANY INFORMATION THAT CAN BE ACCESSED THROUGH THE WORK VIA HYPERLINK OR OTH- ERWISE, AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIM ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. McGraw-Hill and its licensors do not warrant or guarantee that the functions contained in the work will meet your requirements or that its operation will be uninterrupted or error free. Neither McGraw-Hill nor its licensors shall be liable to you or anyone else for any inaccuracy, error or omission, regardless of cause, in the work or for any damages resulting therefrom. McGraw-Hill has no responsibility for the content of any information accessed through the work. Under no circumstances shall McGraw-Hill and/or its licensors be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, punitive, consequential or similar damages that result from the use of or inability to use the work, even if any of them has been advised of the possibility of such damages. This limitation of liability shall apply to any claim or cause whatsoever whether such claim or cause arises in contract, tort or otherwise. DOI: 10.1036/0071494707
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    For more information about this title, click here C O N T E N T S Foreword xv Preface xvii Acknowledgments xxi PART 1 THE VERDICT OF HISTORY Chapter 1 Stock and Bond Returns Since 1802 3 “Everybody Ought to Be Rich” 3 Financial Market Returns from 1802 5 The Long-Term Performance of Bonds 7 The End of the Gold Standard and Price Stability 9 Total Real Returns 11 Interpretation of Returns 12 Long-Term Returns 12 Short-Term Returns and Volatility 14 Real Returns on Fixed-Income Assets 14 The Fall in Fixed-Income Returns 15 The Equity Premium 16 Worldwide Equity and Bond Returns: Global Stocks for the Long Run 18 Conclusion: Stocks for the Long Run 20 Appendix 1: Stocks from 1802 to 1870 21 Appendix 2: Arithmetic and Geometric Returns 22 v
    vi CONTENTS Chapter 2 Risk, Return, and Portfolio Allocation: Why Stocks Are Less Risky Than Bonds in the Long Run 23 Measuring Risk and Return 23 Risk and Holding Period 24 Investor Returns from Market Peaks 27 Standard Measures of Risk 28 Varying Correlation between Stock and Bond Returns 30 Efficient Frontiers 32 Recommended Portfolio Allocations 34 Inflation-Indexed Bonds 35 Conclusion 36 Chapter 3 Stock Indexes: Proxies for the Market 37 Market Averages 37 The Dow Jones Averages 38 Computation of the Dow Index 39 Long-Term Trends in the Dow Jones 40 Beware the Use of Trend Lines to Predict Future Returns 41 Value-Weighted Indexes 42 Standard & Poor’s Index 42 Nasdaq Index 43 Other Stock Indexes: The Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) 45 Return Biases in Stock Indexes 46 Appendix: What Happened to the Original 12 Dow Industrials? 47 Chapter 4 The S&P 500 Index: A Half Century of U.S. Corporate History 51 Sector Rotation in the S&P 500 Index 52 Top-Performing Firms 58 How Bad News for the Firm Becomes Good News for Investors 60 Top-Performing Survivor Firms 61 Other Firms That Turned Golden 62 Outperformance of Original S&P 500 Firms 63 Conclusion 64
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