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2010美国数模B题资料D. Kim Rossmo的一些模型..pdf

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    EEn
    GEOGRAPHIC PROFILING
    Back Cover
    Foreword
    Criminology Comes of Age
    Rules That Commute
    Environmental Criminology and the Path to Crime Control
    Preface
    The Author
    Acknowledgments
    Dedication
    Table of Contents
    List of Tables
    List of Figures
    Quotation
    Chapter 1: Introduction
    Chapter 2: Serial Murder
    2.1 Serial Murder
    2.1.1 Definitions and Typologies
    2.1.1.1 Characteristics
    2.1.2 Incidence, Population, and Growth
    2.1.3 Theories
    2.1.4 Victimology
    2.2 Child Murder
    2.3 Murder and Distance
    Chapter 3: Serial Rape and Arson
    3.1 Serial Rape
    3.2 Serial Arson
    Chapter 4: Forensic Behavioural Science
    4.1 Investigative Difficulties
    4.2 Police Strategies
    4.2.1 Linkage Analysis
    4.2.1.1 Physical Evidence
    4.2.1.2 Offender Description
    4.2.1.3 Crime Scene Behaviour
    4.2.2 Other Investigative Tactics
    Chapter 5: Criminal Profiling
    5.1 Development of Profiling
    5.2 Organized and Disorganized Crime Scenes
    5.3 Applications of Profiling
    5.4 Critiques
    5.5 Evaluation Studies
    5.6 Profiling and Probability
    5.7 Expert Testimony
    5.8 Future of Profiling
    Chapter 6: Behavioural Geography
    6.1 Movement and Distance
    6.2 Mental Maps
    6.3 Awareness and Activity Spaces
    6.3.1 Anchor Points
    6.4 Centrography
    6.5 Nearest Neighbour Analysis
    Chapter 7: Geography Of Crime
    7.1 Geography and Crime Studies
    7.1.1 Journey-to-Crime Research
    7.2 Environmental Criminology
    7.2.1 Routine Activity Theory
    7.2.2 Rational Choice Theory
    7.2.3 Crime Pattern Theory
    Chapter 8: Target and Hunt
    8.1 Target Patterns
    8.1.1 Place and Space
    8.1.2 Hunting Grounds
    8.1.3 Target Backcloth
    8.1.4 Crime Sites
    8.1.5 Body Disposal
    8.1.6 Learning and Displacement
    8.1.7 Offender Type
    8.2 Hunting Methods
    8.2.1 Target Cues
    8.2.2 Hunting Humans
    8.2.3 Search and Attack
    8.2.4 Predator Hunting Typology
    Chapter 9: Predator Patterns
    9.1 Spatial Typologies
    9.2 Geography of Serial Murder
    9.2.1 Methodology
    9.2.1.1 Serial Killer Data
    9.2.1.2 Newspaper Sources
    9.2.1.3 Offender, Victim, and Location Data
    9.2.2 Serial Killer Characteristics
    9.2.2.1 State Comparisons
    9.2.3 Case Descriptions
    9.2.3.1 Richard Chase
    9.2.3.2 Albert DeSalvo
    9.2.3.3 Clifford Olson
    9.2.3.4 Angelo Buono and Kenneth Bianchi
    9.2.3.5 Peter Sutcliffe
    9.2.3.6 Richard Ramirez
    9.2.3.7 David Berkowitz
    9.2.3.8 Jeffrey Dahmer
    9.2.3.9 Joel Rifkin
    9.2.3.10 John Collins
    9.2.3.11 Aileen Wuornos
    9.2.3.12 Ian Brady and Myra Hindley
    9.2.3.13 Jerry Brudos
    9.4 Serial Murder Characteristics
    9.4.1 Offenders
    9.4.2 Victims
    9.4.3 Locations
    9.4.4 Crime Parsing
    9.4.5 Clusters
    9.4.6 Trip Distance Increase
    Chapter 10: Geographic Profiling
    10.1 Mapping and Crime Analysis
    10.2 Geography and Crime Investigation
    10.3 Offender Residence Prediction
    10.3.1 Criminal Geographic Targeting
    10.3.2 Performance
    10.3.3 Validity, Reliability, and Utility
    10.3.3.1 Validity
    10.3.3.2 Reliability
    10.3.3.3 Utility
    10.4 Geographic Profiling
    10.4.1 Profiling Considerations
    10.4.2 Operational Procedures
    10.4.2.1 Information Requirements
    10.4.2.2 Requesting a Geographic Profile
    10.4.3 Understudy Training Program
    10.4.4 The Rigel Computer System
    Chapter 11: Investigative Applications
    11.1 Strategies and Tactics
    11.1.1 Suspect Prioritization
    11.1.2 Police Information Systems
    11.1.3 Task Force Management
    11.1.4 Sex Offender Registries
    11.1.5 Government and Business Databases
    11.1.6 Motor Vehicle Registrations
    11.1.7 Patrol Saturation and Stakeouts
    11.1.8 Response Plans
    11.1.9 Mail Outs
    11.1.10 Neighbourhood Canvasses
    11.1.11 News Media
    11.1.12 Bloodings
    11.1.13 Peak-of-Tension Polygraphy
    11.1.14 Fugitive Location
    11.1.15 Missing Bodies
    11.1.16 Trial Court Expert Evidence
    11.2 Jack the Ripper
    Chapter 12: Conclusion
    Appendix A: Serial Murderer Data Set
    Appendix B: Data Coding Forms
    DATA CODING FORM #1: SERIAL MURDER OFFENDERS
    DATA CODING FORM #2: SERIAL MURDER VICTIMS
    DATA CODING FORM #3: SERIAL MURDER LOCATIONS
    Glossary
    Bibliography
    © 2000 by CRC Press LLC
    Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Rossmo, D. Kim Geographic profiling/ D. Kim Rossmo p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-8493-8129-0 1. Criminal psychology. 2. Environmental psychology. 3. Criminal behavior, Prediction of. 4. Behavioral assessment. 5. Applied human geography. 6. Crime analysis. I. Title. HV6080.R575 1999 364.3--dc21 99-051414 CIP This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. A wide variety of references are listed. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and the publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or for the consequences of their use Neither this book nor any part may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. The consent of CRC Press LLC does not extend to copying for general distribution, for promotion, for creating new works, or for resale. Specific permission must be obtained in writing from CRC Press LLC for such copying. Direct all inquiries to CRC Press LLC, 2000 Corporate Blvd., N.W., Boca Raton, Florida 33431. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are only used for identification and explanation, without intent to infringe. © 2000 by CRC Press LLC No claim to original U.S. Government works International Standard Book Number 0-8493-8129-0 Library of Congress Card Number 99-051414 Printed in the United States of America 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 Printed on acid-free paper
    Foreword Criminology Comes of Age th Scientific criminology has its roots in crime mapping. The first great system- atic studies of crime were cartographic exercises made possible by record- keeping systems created to track criminal convictions in France and England during the early part of the 19 century. Compared with maps of demo- graphic, economic, and social data, crime maps established some of the great and enduring facts of the science: crime in general is associated with the distributions of youth, males, the poor, and of the poorly educated. Maps of crime patterns in major American cities during the early 20th century recon- firmed the 19 century findings, and added the observation that crimes and criminals’ residences cluster in places predicted by urban form and transpor- tation network geometry and that those places exhibited little local social organisation. th These broad criminological findings resulted in broad policy prescrip- tions for crime reduction. The observations on the correlation of youth and crime led to special handling for youthful criminals: juvenile courts, reduced punishments, and special school programs. The observed correlation between crime and males led to special programs aimed at males: organised sports programs, industrial job training, and counselling. Most importantly, the correlation between crime and poverty resulted in programs aimed at the elimination of poverty and in social interventions aimed at improving the organisation of impoverished neighbourhoods. Such programs were especially prominent and especially well funded in the 1960s and 1970s, led by the American “War on Poverty” programs which — although desirable in their own right — were funded on the promise that crime would be reduced. not Crime was reduced. Both violent and property crime rates skyrock- eted. Crime rates tripled between 1960 and 1980 in both the U.S. and Canada; violent crime rates quintupled over the same period in England and Wales. At the same time, criminology provided little that proved useful to law enforcement. © 2000 by CRC Press LLC
    What went wrong? Why was the early promise of crime mapping so misleading? Why is this book an important corrective? Rules That Commute Maps are important analytic tools. They can display enormous amounts of infor- mation in readily understandable form, but they can also be misleading: they are often used to show average areal tendencies at the cost of obscuring important variations within areal units. It becomes tempting to assume that the average areal description also describes all the individual locations within the area. The mapping trap is but one part of the broader problem of ascribing aggregate average characteristics to individuals: the ecological fallacy. For instance, if a crime map shows that crime rates are high in a poor neigh- bourhood, two mistaken conclusions are sometimes drawn. The first is that most of the people in the neighbourhood are criminals. The second is that people are criminal because they are poor. In fact, studies of individuals demonstrate that most poor people are honest, even in high crime neigh- bourhoods. Studies of individual criminals show that adoption of a criminal lifestyle leads to poverty at least as often as poverty tempts people into crime. Criminology as a science has provided little to the professional world of crime control because it has often been seduced by the ecological fallacy. Crime control, and especially law enforcement, requires prescriptions that can help resolve individual as well as aggregate situations. It needs rules that commute. F = ma By that, I mean statements of relationships that can be used to predict both directions across a function. An elementary equation from beginning physics is an example: . Force equals mass times acceleration. This means that the force with which a bullet hits a target can be calculated from its mass and its acceleration. Because the relationship commutes, the equa- tion could be algebraically manipulated to permit calculation of a bullet’s acceleration from its mass and the force with which it hit, or to calculate its mass from the force with which it hit and the acceleration at which it was moving when it hit. Many of the findings of criminology do not commute. For instance, while most criminals live in poor neighbourhoods, most poor people are not criminal. While most burglars are youthful, most youths do not commit burglaries. While most serious child abusers were themselves abused as chil- dren, most abused children do not become child abusers. As a result, crim- inology has historically provided little that is helpful to those charged with solving crimes, or predicting an offender’s future dangerousness, or reducing fear in the community. © 2000 by CRC Press LLC
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